Jaguars Given 8.5% Chance by ESPN To Make Playoffs

The Jaguars are in a bad spot at 3-7 to make the playoffs, but there are teams with worse odds.

Normally at 3-7, teams are dead in the water. 

This hasn't always been the case -- four teams have gone 3-6 and made the playoffs in the past, including the 1996 Jaguars who were 4-7 and ended the year at 9-7 and with a playoff birth. 

But the NFL is a different league today than it has been in the past. With an expanded playoff and a shift in power among teams due to several quarterback retirements, the AFC is a truly shifting world. 

So, what does that mean for the 2022 Jaguars after a tough 10 weeks? While they are three wins behind the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans, there are some playoff projections that still have them with a fighting chance.

This includes ESPN's Football Power Index, which currently has the Jaguars with an 8.5% chance to make the playoffs. This is higher than teams such as the Cleveland Browns (4.5%), Los Angeles Rams (5.6%), New Orleans Saints (5.8%), and the Chicago Bears (0.4%), which are other teams in the same win range as them. 

"Neither ESPN's FPI nor I can quit the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence is playing better this year, improving from 28th in QBR last season to 16th this year," ESPN's Seth Walder wrote. "Both the offense and defense have been above average. And they play in a weak division. That's a decent recipe for reaching the postseason, but they'll need things to break right to overcome the odds."

The Jaguars started out 2022 in a hot fashion, going 2-1 in the first three weeks with two blowout wins. But they have lost seven of six of their last seven games, including five losses by one score.

“If we were 7-3, maybe it’s a different story, but we’re 3-7, and we’re still trying to figure out some pieces and who can play and all that, and this is a great opportunity for those guys to get time," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday. 

"We want them to play, and we want them to get reps out there, and every time and any time they can. I think what you’re seeing now with Buster (CB Montaric Brown) now that he’s out there more, he’s beginning to get a little more comfortable in that environment, and that’s all you want. You just want them to be, the eyes aren’t big, they’re more focused, focused on their job, focused on the tasks they’re asked to do on a particular play, and that’s all you want from these guys, especially the young players when they get opportunities to play.”