Jaguars Mailbag: Why Doug Pederson Gives Jacksonville an Edge vs. Titans
Each week during this year's season, Jaguar Report will take Jacksonville Jaguars-related questions from our readers across social media and answer them in a question-and-answer format, giving readers a chance to have their voices heard.
You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.
This week we take questions on the Jaguars' upcoming game vs. the Tennessee Titans, the playoff implications of the rest of the NFL and more.
Q: This season feels more like '17 than '96 to me. The Dallas game was our Seattle game from 17. Our defense has been the beneficiary of some awful opposing QB play just like in 17. I understand the whole "worst to first" historical parallel with 96 but this was only made possible by a sudden and complete collapse by the Titans. Your thoughts?
A: When you get to the root of each team, there are obvious differences with this Jaguars team compared to both. This team has been mostly driven by offense, while the 2017 team was fueled by takeaways, sacks and a lack of turnovers on offense. The 1996 team was solid right down the middle, but they did throw 20 interceptions as compared to the Jaguars' nine this season. So, there are is some variance to each team.
Ultimately this Jaguars' team reminds me the most of some of Trent Baalke's and Doug Pederson's past teams. The 2012 San Francisco 49ers' offense looked a lot like the Jaguars' in terms of overall production, while the overall theme of this season has carried over with some of Pederson's Eagles teams. This team doesn't feel like any other Jaguars team though because for the first time in franchise history, it feels like a combination of high-level quarterback play and offensive play-calling and scheming is the driving force to success.
Q: We are almost at the end and the offseason is right around the corner. How do we improve on this season when we so up against the cap?
A: Draft and develop well. That might not be the answer people want to hear, but the Jaguars' priorities after two offseasons of spending should likely be to retain their own talent and to continue to add rookies to improve depth. The Jaguars have nine draft picks in 2022 and a number of proven veterans with expiring contracts, so expecting the Jaguars to make huge swings in free-agency seems a bit far-fetched. It is also worth noting the Jaguars already made a significant move for next season, trading for wide receiver Calvin Ridley.
Q: With Dobbs at QB and an extremely banged-up and weakened offensive line, how do you expect the Jaguars to defend Tennessee?
A: I think the Jaguars are going to do two things: sell out to stop Derrick Henry on early downs and bring the pressure for Josh Dobbs on passing downs. Henry is the Titans' bread and butter and will obviously be the focal point of their game-plan, so the Jaguars shouldn't be afraid to go all-in on stopping the run. As for stopping Dobbs, I think the Jaguars throw out some heavy pressure packages like they did last week vs. Davis Mills, getting the safeties and linebackers involved in getting pressure on him quickly.
Q: Would you count the Jaguars season as a huge success even if they lose the probably most important regular season game in franchise history?
A: Of course, even though the thought of "what if" will always be attached to this season. The Jaguars deserve their flowers for even being in a position to win the AFC South a year after picking No. 1 overall and fielding the NFL's worst team. Their improvement over the course of the year, combined with the development of Trevor Lawrence, has made it a great season considering preseason expectations.
With that said, the Jaguars should already be better than their current record. If you give them wins in just half of the one-score games they lost, they are an 11- or 12-win team in 2022. If they lose on Sunday, there will be a lot of regret. Luckily, I don't see a way that happens.
Q: With some Titans starters being back are they still vulnerable in pass D, or will TL/Engram torch them again? If their pass D improved for this game, how will the Jags O compensate for the adjustments?
A: I think the linebackers were the Jaguars' targets last time. Doug Pederson does a great job of identifying a team's weakness on defense and exploiting it, and the way the game played out last time showed the linebackers as an area he could take advantage of. This week, I think it will be the secondary. Whether it is the slot cornerback position or the safeties, I think Pederson and the Jaguars will be able to get a split-out Evan Engram and Christian Kirk into positions to succeed.
Q: Derrick Henry still scares me. Is he being overlooked right now?
A: I think so, especially when you consider Derrick Henry popped off some long runs and had an extremely productive first-half outing vs. the Jaguars the last time these two teams played. The Titans fell behind quickly due to turnovers and scores through the air by the Jaguars, which more or less took Henry out of the game. So, yes, Henry should still scare the Jaguars.
The bright side? The Jaguars know all of this, and they are equipped to do something about it. The Jaguars are No. 12 in rush defense per DVOA and No. 5 in EPA/Play against the run. They have a healthy front seven for the first time in weeks, too. Combine this with their defensive line and linebackers playing their best football of the season over the last two weeks, and the Jaguars have the tools to limit Henry, even if the threat of him still looms large.
Q: How does Doug Pederson push the right buttons vs. the Titans and Vrabel?
A: I think Doug Pederson is the biggest advantage the Jaguars have in this game. The Jaguars are the better team on paper and in terms of both season-long and recent metrics, in large part due to the Titans missing a plethora of players due to injury for most of the year. But even with all of this in mind, the Titans are always a tough team to count out. Winning for years does that.
That makes coaching even more important for this game. Getting the Jaguars' young roster prepared for a game of this magnitude is a critical piece to this game considering the experience Vrabel and his veterans have in these situations.
Pederson has proven he can do all of that and some, though. There are few instances this year where the Jaguars have lost or struggled because of their head coach, a far cry from the last several seasons and especially 2021. Pederson's ability to both navigate the emotions of his locker room and prepare effective offensive game plan's gives the Jaguars' a chance in each game.
