Jaguars May Be a Legitimate Bet for an Upset Win

The Jacksonville Jaguars have an uphill battle on Sunday. However, they may be worth considering for an upset against the Minnesota Vikings at home.

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson on the sidelines against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars will face one of the best teams in the National Football League this season when they play the Minnesota Vikings this week at home.

The Jaguars have suffered numerous injuries to critical players, including quarterback Trevor Lawerence, who is not expected to play on Sunday.

Still, Alexander Chester and R.J. White of CBS Sports believe there is reason to believe the Jaguars could be competitive, as the game is at home.

“The Jaguars have not had a great season, but they haven’t been terrible at home,” White said. “In four home games, they have outscored their opponents by 11 points, with the biggest loss coming by five points, which is right around where the spread is at most NFL betting sites.”

Minnesota’s pass rush has struggled by its own standards but is still a formidable bunch. Its struggles over the last few weeks have been against teams that are better than the Jaguars.

While the Jaguars beat the Colts earlier this season, it was a narrow win the Jaguars almost lost after allowing nearly 25 points in the fourth quarter.

“The vaunted Vikings pass rush, best in the league through the first seven weeks of the season, has largely disappeared,” White said. “After the defense failed to even touch Matthew Stafford in Week 8, Minnesota did not sack Joe Flacco last week until the Indianapolis Colts’ final drive of the game.”

White noted that “in his only game against Minnesota, Mac Jones had the best day of his career, going 28-of-39 for 382 yards and two touchdowns, for a 119.8 passer rating and 59.8 QBR. But of course, this is a different Vikings defense with a different defensive coordinator.”

While they have had a few down games, Minnesota’s defense is still one of the best in the National Football League and is all but sure to give Jones and the Jaguars’ running game trouble. The Vikings defense has had their struggles but they are facing a Jaguars offense with its own set of issues, such as injuries and lack of quality players at critical positions.

“Largely due to Minnesota’s inability to get to the quarterback recently, the Vikings’ gaudy defensive numbers have regressed over the last three weeks,” White said.

“Their EPA/play on dropbacks has dropped to 28th (just one spot ahead of the Jaguars). During that three-week span, the rush defense has still been second in the league, so even if Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. are healthy, Jacksonville is unlikely to run the ball well versus Minnesota.”

Jones and Lawrence were in the same draft class and have each played four seasons,” White said. 

“Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Jones has had a higher sack percentage than Lawrence in every season of his career. To the extent the Vikings' pass rush has struggled the last three weeks, getting to face Jones instead of Lawrence should make it easier to reverse those struggles.

“Despite the struggles of the Jacksonville defense against the pass, the Jaguars are still fourth in the league in EPA/play against the run. If the Vikings cannot get Aaron Jones going, the offense could become one-dimensional. 

“And although the Jaguars pass defense has not been good, Darnold has been turnover-prone. Only Gardner Minshew has more turnovers than Darnold this season.”

Initially, Chester and White believed the Jaguars could pull off the upset, but the news of Lawrence’s injury rightfully changed their minds.

“While we initially picked the Jaguars earlier this week, we cannot recommend a bet on Jacksonville anymore given the uncertainty at the quarterback position,” White said. “But the line has moved so far in Minnesota’s direction that there is no longer much value there.”

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