Jaguars-Patriots: Week 7 Prediction

Who do we think wins in Week 7 between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New England Patriots?

Oct 17, 2024; Watford, United Kingdom; Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Pederson watches during practice at The Grove. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars are set to play their second London game with a tilt against the New England Patriots this Sunday, and there is plenty on the line for head coach Doug Pederson and his staff.

The 1-5 Jaguars are tied with the Patriots (and the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers) for the worst record in the NFL in 2024. A win doesn't save the season, but it at least would give the Jaguars something positive to come back to the states with before games against the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles.

A loss, however, would certainly put a black eye on an already sinking season. The Jaguars would be 1-6 and entering another tough slate of games, all of which they will likely be the underdog in.

Luckily for the Jaguars, though, they do have some history on their side when it comes to London and international games.

The Jaguars will compete at Wembley Stadium for the third-consecutive season and for the 10th time overall.

The Patriots have a 3-1 record in four regular-season international games, including two wins at Wembley Stadium (New England 35, Tampa Bay 7 on Oct. 25, 2009; New England 45, St. Louis Rams 7 on Oct. 28, 2012). New England is playing internationally for the second-consecutive season after facing Indianapolis in Frankfurt, Germany, last year.

So, how do we see Week 7 playing out? We make our final prediction below.

Prediction: Jaguars 17, Patriots 16.

While the Jaguars are a clearly superior team on paper in comparison to a Patriots team that is in the first year of an extensive rebuild, there is no questioning that not all 1-5 teams are the same.

The Patriots' offense has mostly been hapless this year, partly due to a porous offensive line and an underwhelming receiver room and partly due to below-average quarterback play. This led the Patriots to starting rookie quarterback Drake Maye against the Houston Texans last week, which means Week 7 will be just his second NFL start.

The Jaguars' defense has been among the worst units in football this season, but they do catch a break this week against a rookie quarterback and an offense that doesn't have a true game-changer at the skill positions.

With that said, I do expect the Patriots' defense to offer some resistance to the Jaguars' offense. Keion White is a walking mismatch and the Jaguars' running game has been boom or bust throughout the early part of the season.

I do think the Jaguars connect with rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. on at least one explosive play downfield. Against this Patriots offense, that might be just enough.

In his first five games, Thomas recorded 45 receiving yards in each game. He joined wide receivers Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin and Andre Johnson as the only rookie wide receivers since 2000 to record at least 45 receiving yards in each of their first five games.

If the Jaguars' offense can find their rookie phenom at the right points, I think this is a game they win -- though not by as much as they should.

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