Jaguars Projected To Earn a 6th-Round Compensatory Pick for Arden Key

The Jaguars might not lose Arden Key for nothing.

The Jacksonville Jaguars won't have pass-rusher Arden Key on their roster in 2023, but they could still earn a draft pick from his departure. 

According to Over The Cap's Nick Korte, the Jaguars are projected to earn a 2024 sixth-round compensatory pick for Key after he signed a three-year, $21 million deal with $13 million in guarantees with the Tennessee Titans.

Looks like Day 2 is winding down, so here's the updated list of the 2024 compensatory picks projection.

And this does not account for several TBDs on precise APY for players such as Jarran Reed, Kyzir White, Robert Spillane, Azeez Al-Shaair, Daniel Brunskill, or Charles Omenihu. pic.twitter.com/lLYSobwz5g

— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) March 15, 2023

Key would be the third player to leave the Jaguars this offseason and earn Jacksonville a compensatory pick. The Jaguars are projected to earn a 2024 third-round compensatory pick for Jawaan Taylor after he signed a four-year, $80 million deal. As for Chris Manhertz, the Jaguars are projected to earn a 2024 seventh-round selection after he signed a two-year, $6 million deal.

Appearing in 20 games for the Jaguars, Key recorded 4.5 sacks and five tackles for loss.

No pass-rusher was more efficient for the Jaguars in 2022 than Key. While playing mostly as a rotational player and sub-package edge rusher, Key led the Jaguars' defensive line and edge rushers in pass-rush win-rate and was second on the team in pressures and quarterback hits despite not being an every-down player. When injuries hit, it was Key who stepped up.

The last time the Jaguars were awarded a compensatory draft pick was in 2010 when they received a sixth-round (No. 203rd overall) selection. They would later use that pick on James Madison defensive back Scotty McGee. Since then, the Jaguars' mix of free agency spending and lack of quality free agents departing from the team has created an unlucky streak of zero compensatory picks.

"Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL management council," the NFL states.

"Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula. No club may receive more than four compensatory picks in any one year. If a club qualifies for more than four compensatory picks after offsetting each CFA lost by each CFA gained of an equal or higher value, the four highest remaining selections will be awarded to the club."

Since the program's inception in 1994, the Jaguars have only received 19 total picks, among the fewest in the league in that span.