Jaguars Roundtable: What Is the Worst-Case Scenario For 2024?

This week, the Jaguars On SI staff takes a look at what the worst-case scenarios for the Jaguars in 2024 could be.

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (17) is brought down after a catch by Garret Wallow (54) and Tennessee Titans cornerback Eric Garror (33) during their game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024. / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA

Throughout the 2024 season, the Jaguars On SI staff is going to come together to produce weekly roundtables, delivering answers on every hard-hitting Jaguars and AFC South topic.

After we went over the best-case scenarios for the 2024 Jaguars last week, this week we turn it around and pose the question of what the worst-case scenario for the Jaguars this fall?

We break it down below.

John Shipley: I think we saw relatively what the worst-case looked like last year; injuries to key players at quarterback, cornerback, wide receiver, and the offensive line. The Jaguars didn't have the depth at any of the last three positions to overcome losing starters, while several injuries to Trevor Lawrence bottomed out the entire offense. If the Jaguars can't stay healthy, it is unlikely they can hang with even the worst teams on their schedule, let alone the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts

And even with a healthy offensive line, there is still a plausible worst-case scenario where the Jaguars' offensive line holds back the offense's ceiling and greatly drags down their floor. If the Jaguars have one of the league's worst offensive lines for the second year in a row, it is reasonable to think they could finish third in the AFC South and with a sub-.500 record.

Kyle Nash: While injuries to major role players are always an impact, the concussion history of Mitch Morse looks to be a single point of failure for this offensive line. Should he miss time, visions of protection struggles from last season could lead the Jaguars offense to the same limited production as 2022. With stagnant offense, it’s hard see them doing better than 2-4 in the AFC South.

Also getting used to new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and his new scheme could lead to game-altering mistakes in close contests. Opponents who have rebuilt their offenses could steal some games in those scenarios . A disappointing 1-3 against the NFC North and 2-2 in the AFC East (especially if New York Jets’ quarterback Aaron Rogers is healthy for 15) is certainly within comprehension. The Cleveland Browns also have a solid enough defense to steal a game as well. Still managing to beat the Las Vegas Raiders, a 6-11 finish would leave the Duval Devout reeling as they have to endure more ignorant criticism of Trevor Lawrence’s contract extension in the national media.

Tyler Carmona: After signing Mac Jones, an injury to Trevor Lawrence shouldn’t have the potential to throw the whole season away. With that being said, the trajectory of the year would certainly change. Over the past three years, the Jaguars don't have much experience playing without Lawrence. He has only missed one game after being drafted in 2021. Ultimately, the worst case-scenario would be narrowly missing the playoffs as opposed to performing outright poorly and securing a high draft pick.

Daniel Griffis: The Jaguars seem to be in a fairly stable position going into the 2024 season, recently locking up their franchise quarterback. Much of the coaching staff and roster returns as well. That said, the end to the 2023 season was demoralizing for the team and fans alike as the Jaguars quickly went from atop the AFC to missing out on the playoffs in just five weeks time. While injuries were no doubt a large contributing factor, the collapse of the defense and inability to rush the football hindered the team's ability to win games late in the year.

Injuries aside, however, what is the worst-case scenario for Jacksonville next season? The biggest effect upon the team's floor might be center Mitch Morse. The position plagued the offense for much of the 2023 season as Luke Fortner struggled to improve upon his rookie campaign. A stronger interior of the offensive line should do wonders for Trevor Lawrence and the run game. Ryan Nielsen's defensive scheme may take some time to adjust to, however, he's proven that he can immediately improve a defense in year one. I think 7-8 wins is likely the team's worst-case scenario. If that does in fact come to fruition, fans will no doubt be calling for change after failing to make the playoffs this past season.

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