Jaguars-Texans: Week 13 Prediction

Who do we think wins between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans in Week 13?

Sep 24, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans head coach Demeco Ryans and Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson shake hands after the game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

Week 13's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans features two AFC South teams on different, but similar, trajectories.

The Texans are leading the AFC South with a 7-5 record and were offseason darlings, but their play in the last month-plus has left plenty to be inspired.

The Jaguars were in a similar spot a year ago, starting 8-3 and with all of the momentum of the league and media on their side. Since then, though, the Jaguars have been in a seemingly never-ending backslide, going 3-14 in their last 17 games.

This includes a 2-9 start to the 2024 season that has the Jaguars sitting at 2-9 and facing elimination from playoff contention with a loss to Houston. And for now, the Jaguars are doing anything they can to keep their season alive.

“Where we are with six games left, I mean, these are all sort of must-win games, in order for us to even have a shot. So, they just happen to be division games—four of the last six. So, we've got to take each one week by week," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said earlier this week.

"We've got a good Houston team that's coming in here. We understand what happened last game down in Houston. As a team, I think we’ve just got to learn to finish and do some little things a little bit better and strain and all of that. But yeah, it doesn't get any easier. I mean, I think Tennessee is playing good—big win last week. Defensively, they're playing outstanding. So, it's tough. It's a tough sled, but we’ve just got to go one at a time.”

So, who do we think wins on Sunday?

Prediction: Texans 26, Jaguars 20

I see another tough one-score loss for the Jaguars on Sunday, even with the Texans currently playing some pretty mediocre football. I do not think the Jaguars and Texans are actually all that far apart talent-wise despite the difference in records, and I think the return of Trevor Lawrence is going to give the Jaguars a boost.

With that said, I still think C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are just enough to do damage against a Jaguars' defense that looked out of sorts against Detroit. Even in the defense's best games this year, they have given up plenty of yards and plenty of poins. I don't see that changing on Sunday.

The Jaguars and Texans have played close games in recent bouts, and I see similar happening this week. The return of Lawrence means the Jaguars at least have a fighter's chance, but I ultimately see the Jaguars dropping to 2-10 by the end of Sunday's contest.

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