Jaguars vs. Colts: Two Takeaways from Week 1 Win and Titans' Week 5 Loss to Colts
Full stop: the Jacksonville Jaguars have a better NFL roster than the Indianapolis Colts right now. There should be no debate over the Jags’ quality when compared to Indy.
But when the two AFC South teams line up on Sunday, both teams will be 3-2 and the Colts will expect a win as much as Jacksonville does.
That’s the Gardner Minshew effect. Jaguars fans know all too well the high of Minshew making plays, winning games, and, obviously, looking like an old-school Budweiser commercial while doing it. That’s fun and all, but this is a major opportunity for Jacksonville to be the ones bringing Minshew back to Earth.
In terms of a blueprint for Week 6, how the Jaguars beat the Colts in Week 1, as well as how Indianapolis upset the Tennessee Titans should provide the gameplan for the rematch.
There are several lessons the Jaguars could take from their Week 1, but the most important has to be leaning into their strengths in the passing game. Sunday’s game should feature receivers getting open and QB Trevor Lawrence delivering the ball quickly.
Back in September, Lawrence completed 75% of his passes against Indy. Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones and Evan Engram had no issue getting separation against a fairly average secondary, with Ridley and Engram totalling 36 and 23 yards after the catch respectively.
This is one area where Jacksonville’s superior roster needs to shine through. Not only is it a mismatch between units, but the Jaguars WRs’ getting open in the quick passing scheme critically counteracts Indianapolis’ defensive line, the strongest part of the Colts’ defense.
Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner consistently disrupted in Week 1 with a sack and three interior pressures. In theory, he ought to be able create that kind of impact again against a struggling and beat-up interior offensive line. The best way to prevent Buckner and names like Samson Ebukam from disrupting is to pass the ball quickly and efficiently, something head coach Doug Pederson prides himself on.
This is highlighted further when considering the Jaguars only averaged 3.0 yards per carry against Indy in Week 1, and Titans RB Derrick Henry only averaged 3.3 yards per carry against the Colts last Sunday. His longest run was just eight yards.
Limiting the run is something Indianapolis has done well against Jacksonville and Tennessee, and it’s only reasonable to expect that they will make life difficult for RB Travis Ettiene. That puts additional pressure on Lawrence and the receivers, but they ought to be able to get the best of the Colts secondary.
Speaking of the Titans’ Week 5 loss, running the ball is exactly how Tennessee lost. Not only did Henry get shut down, the Titans’ defense was shredded by Zack Moss. Moss went for 165 rushing yards, two scores and averaged 7.2 yards per carry.
Those are scary numbers, and the takeaway is simple for Jacksonville: that can’t happen. Jonathan Taylor was limited to just three yards per touch, but the Colts offensive line consistently created holes all the same and Moss was happy to embarrass Titans defenders in space.
The other catalyst for the Colts’ win was Minshew. After Anthony Richardson was injured, Minshew came in and made big throw after big throw, going 11/14 for 155 yards. Minshew certainly played well, but it’s important to remember how the Titans defense getting gashed by the run took an immense amount of pressure off Minshew.
With Richardson out and Minshew in, the task is simplified for Jacksonville. With Richardson, the threat of the QB keep is always prevalent, but now the Jaguars will be able to focus in on Moss and Taylor.
Of course, just because the rushing gameplan is obvious doesn’t mean it will be easy to stop. After all, neither Moss nor Taylor suited up in the Week 1 contest and Sunday will be a much more difficult challenge. But Jacksonville and defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell should be planning to load the box with defenders and force Minshew to make big throws.
Jaguars fans have seen Gardner do it, they know he can make those throws. They also know that he cannot do that consistently. If Jacksonville is able to consistently create 3rd-down passing situations by stacking against the run, it should be a fairly straightforward afternoon.
