Jaguars vs. Dolphins: Week 1 Prediction

Who do we see walking out of Week 1 with the win: the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Miami Dolphins?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to pass during the first quarter of a preseason matchup Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The game was suspended in the fourth after Miami Dolphins wide receiver Daewood Davis (87) was injured on a play with the Jaguars leading 31-18. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

It certainly feels like the Jacksonville Jaguars are flying under-the-radar entering 2024.

After last year's collapse and the rapid rise of the Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud, the Jaguars have fallen by the wayside entering their Week 1 contest against the Miami Dolphins.

"Just go about our business, right? Just keep working hard and playing hard. Don't worry about the outside, just make it about us and focus internally," head coach Doug Pederson said on Friday.

"People are going to write what they want to write, and if you start winning games, then maybe you get some recognition. It's one week at a time. It's one game at a time, obviously, and I'm fine with that.”

The Jaguars historically have performed better in recent years when they don't have the hype machine behind them. They have battled better as underdogs than they have as the hand-picked favorites. And that could potentially play into their favor on Sunday.

With that in mind, here is our final prediction for Week 1 ...

Prediction: Jaguars 27, Dolphins 23

There are plenty of logical reasons to pick the Dolphins in this game. They had one of the NFL's top offenses a year ago, Mike McDaniel has gotten the most out of Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be the most dynamic wide receiver duo in the entire league.

But the Jaguars ultimately have quite a few variables working in their way as well. For one, the Jaguars' defensive line of Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen, Arik Armstead and others are likely one of the tougher matchups a new Dolphins offensive line is going to see.

After changes at center and guard, the Jaguars' pass-rush could tee off against a questionable Dolphins offensive line.

As for the secondary, the Jaguars don't have an elite unit that could shut down Hill in any setting, but they do have history working in their favor.

Some of the worst Dolphins performances under McDaniel have come against press coverage defenses that don't allow Hill and Waddle to get free releases. Ryan Nielsen's scheme is built in the same mold.

As for the offense, the Dolphins will be without Bradley Chubb and former star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. Jaelan Phillips is working back from injuries and Chop Robinson is entering his NFL debut.

This should be one of the lower-tier fronts the Jaguars play this year, which could naturally help the Jaguars find a run/pass balance that sets Trevor Lawrence up to succeed.

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