NFL Playoffs: What Scenarios Get the Jaguars In?

Which wins do the Jaguars need and which breaks do they need over the next two weeks to punch a ticket to the playoffs?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are not far away from making their first postseason appearance since 2017. 

With just four more quarters of winning football, the 7-8 first-place Jaguars can clinch the AFC South and punch their ticket to the playoffs. 

"We can’t put added pressure on ourselves. We have enough pressure going into the game and just focusing on ourselves," Jaguars running back Travis Etienne said on Thursday after the 19-3 win over the New York Jets. 

"I feel like we’re at our best whenever we don’t take anything for granted and just play as another one honestly." 

So, which scenarios get the Jaguars into the postseason? We break it down below to help track what the next two weeks mean, with help from ESPN's Playoff Machine. 

Scenario 1: Win vs. Houston Texans in Week 17, Win vs. Tennessee Titans in Week 18 

Outcome: Win AFC South, No. 4 seed

Scenario 2: Lose/Tie vs. Houston Texans in Week 17, Win vs. Tennessee Titans in Week 18

Outcome: Win AFC South, No. 4 seed

These are the two simple outcomes for the Jaguars to make the playoffs. No matter what happens in Week 17, the Jaguars can win the AFC South in Week 18 at home vs. the Titans. That doesn't mean Week 17 is completely pointless, which we will touch on later. But even if the Jaguars lose on Sunday in their rematch against Houston, they can enter the postseason with a win over the Titans in Week 18, regardless of what the Titans do vs. the Dallas Cowboys.

"What a great feeling this is to just do what we said we were going to do. Now we just have to finish these last two. Well, finish this next one," Jaguars outside linebacker Josh Allen said last Thursday. 

"Houston is a divisional game for us, must-win game. So the attention to detail and sense of urgency is still up high. We just know we’ve got a little time to rest and get our bodies back right. That’s the only thing we can do and get ready to go back to Houston."

So, do the Jaguars need to win in Week 17? Not really. Just win in Week 18, which is now essentially a playoff game as the Jaguars and Titans face off in the defacto AFC South Championship Game. 

Scenario 3: Win Houston Texans in Week 17, Tie vs. Tennessee Titans in Week 18

Outcome: Win AFC South, No. 4 seed

This is a real scenario! With a win against the Texans this weekend, the Jaguars could still make the playoffs without a win in Week 17 as long as they tie with the Titans in Week 18. This is obviously unlikely, but still a potential path to the playoffs. 

For reference's sake, there have only been seven ties in the NFL since 2017 and 29 ties since 1974, which is when the NFL introduced a sudden-death 15-minute overtime period for all games that were tied at the end of regulation. 

The downside? A tie would be the first tie in franchise history, which shows just how unlikely it is. The Jaguars are the only franchise in the NFL that has never ended a game in a tie.

Scenario 4: Win vs. Houston Texans in Week 17, Lose vs. Tennessee Titans in Week 18

Outcome: No. 7 seed ... with a lot of help 

So, there is a way the Jaguars can get into the playoffs without a win in Week 18. That obviously wouldn't be ideal because the Jaguars can just simply beat the Titans and earn their way to the playoffs, but the fact that there are six AFC teams with either seven or eight wins means there is some wiggle room. 

Per ESPN's playoff machine, here is how the Jaguars can win a wild-card spot.

• Week 17 losses by Miami Dolphins, New York Jets 
• Week 18 losses by Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots
• A Week 17 OR Week 18 loss by Pittsburgh Steelers

In short, the Jaguars will need to root for teams such as the Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Cleveland Browns. 

So, needing five games to go the Jaguars' way over the next two weeks isn't ideal. And there is a way they could enter Week 18 needing to win no matter what since there is still a possibility of the Dolphins or Jets winning this week.

In short, the Jaguars could have a chance, but it is a slim one without a Week 18 win.