NFL Playoffs: Where Does Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence Rank Among AFC QBs?

Where in the hierarchy of the AFC does Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence rank?

While there is a 17-game sample size provided to us each season to help us identify which quarterbacks stand where, everyone knows that January and February are simply different. 

How a quarterback performs in the playoffs vs. how he plays at home in Week 6 is drastically different. The postseason is when reputations are made or broken. When legends begin to take their place on the Mount Rushmore of the NFL. 

This is the week when Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence can kick off his NFL legacy. 

ESPN's Dan Orlovsky kicked off the weekend of debate with his ranking of the NFL's 12 playoff quarterbacks, placing Lawrence at No. 9 behind Daniel Jones. As a result, we took a hard look at the numbers and film and decided to do our own ranking of the AFC quarterback arms race. 

For clarity, this is a ranking of where things stand today, immediately following the 2022 season. This is not a projection of where each quarterback can be moving forward, even into 2023. 

Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes

My pick for MVP for the 2022-23 season, Patrick Mahomes was on an absolute tear this season. He has the most passing yards among the AFC playoff quarterbacks, the top EPA/Play, top CPOE, top sack %, top interception %, and best Y/A, AY/A. and ANY/A, 

There is no comparison for Mahomes in the NFL, let alone in the AFC. The AFC is absolutely loaded at quarterback, but Mahomes is going to remain in a class of his own until someone is able to dethrone the consistent dominance he has displayed since his first NFL start. 

Tier 2: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow

This is a coin flip that could go either way. Burrow has better marks in certain areas such as EPA/Play, turnover-worthy play rate and completion %, while Allen has the numbers and film to show he is one of the most explosive playmakers not just at quarterback, but in the entire NFL. 

I would give the slight edge to Burrow because he is putting the ball in harm's way to a lesser degree, but few offenses rely on one player as much as the Bills' offense does. Both Burrow and Allen have proven they are elite quarterbacks, though Allen has been the better postseason performer. 

Tier 3: Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence

This is where things get interesting. Herbert and Lawrence have eerily similar numbers this season, though Lawrence has been better at sack %, Y/A, touchdown %, and has a big gap in EPA/Play. It is worth noting 2022 has been Justin Herbert's least productive NFL season, but there is a reason we are looking at where quarterback stands today and not a year ago. 

Herbert has an edge on Lawrence in terms of experience and consistency, with Herbert's peaks being higher than Lawrence's and more frequent. Lawrence has shown the ability to match Herbert on his best days, though, and it isn't hard to argue that Lawrence's best would give the Jaguars a shot against Herbert's best.

Each of these passers is missing the numbers and game-to-game dominance to be in one of the top-two tiers, at least this season. But each are among the best eight quarterbacks in the playoffs and legit top-10 passers this year, so this is more of a testament to the strength of the AFC.

Tier ???: Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley

It is a shame Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa aren't playing this weekend. Huntley and Thompson are, naturally, sixth and seventh in pretty much every important quarterback metric among the seven AFC quarterbacks, with Thompson having one of the lowest EPA/Plays of any quarterback in the NFL this season.