REPORT: Why Don't Analytics Like Jaguars' Outlook?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are off to a poor start, to say the least. Analytics don't favor them going forward. Why?

Sep 8, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis (0) runs with the football against the Miami Dolphins during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars put themselves in a very difficult position. Dropping their first two games against the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns, two games that should have been wins, set them up for the possibility of going 0-4. It would be almost insurmountable to recover.

The Jaguars have to play a talented, red-hot Buffalo Bills team on the road before facing their toughest AFC South foe, the Houston Texans. Both are playoff teams. Both are playing vastly better football than the Jaguars.

Even after the next two games, analytics do not favor the Jaguars' chances for success the rest of the season. Pro Football Focus put the Jaguars at No. 27 in their power-rankings.

"An 0-2 start has left the Jaguars in a tough position, and the offense has scored just 30 points across two games," PFF's Thomas Valentine wrote. "Linebacker Devin Lloyd has earned a 90.4 grade, second-highest among all linebackers, but the Jaguars need to right the ship immediately."

The Jaguars strength of schedule so far, per PFF, is 16th in the league. The schedule they have left is a little bit more manageable -- 23rd. Their projected win total, despite the relatively more favorable schedule, is just 6.89 wins. Their chance of making the playoffs is 24.67 percent.

The Jaguars have a 16.34 percent chance of winning the AFC South. Competition is stiff, with an Indianapolis Colts that could be dangerous and the aforementioned Texans are one of the best teams in the NFL.

The Tennessee Titans are the only team that could give the Jaguars two wins, if there was one in the AFC South. The Jaguars don't need to hit the panic button just yet. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was sure of it when he spoke to the press after the Cleveland game.

"When we go watch this game tomorrow, whenever we watch it, I'm not sure the schedule with the Monday night game, we've got to be honest with ourselves, and if you don't like it and if you made a mistake and you don't like people calling it out and talking about it, you need to find a different job because this isn't the one," Lawrence said. "Things matter. Little details matter. I'm talking to myself as much as anyone, so I don't want it to be misconstrued but that stuff matters. Everyone had a play today, at least one, that they can do their job a lot better. You look back at it, and all those plays add up and they affect the game and you end up losing."

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