The ‘Will He or Won’t He’? Surrounding Trevor Lawrence’s Status Sums Up Jaguars’ 2023

The Jaguars' season is quickly circling the drain, and is now relying on Trevor Lawrence to once again save them.

The top storyline facing the Jacksonville Jaguars this week is, undoubtedly, the status of starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence. 

This isn't the first time this has been the case in 2023. Once again, the Jaguars need Lawrence to be Superman to save their season. Once again, their hopes rest solely on his shoulders.

It was the case in Week 7, when Lawrence played on Thursday Night Football after suffering a knee injury four days earlier.

It was the case in Week 14 when Lawrence played seven days after a high ankle sprain. 

It has been the case, really, week in and week out in 2023. And it wasn't supposed to be. 

Through 14 games, the Jaguars sit at 8-6 and just barely have a lead in the AFC South that could be gone by 7:30 p.m. on Christmas Eve. Despite the Jaguars being one win away from their first back-to-back winning seasons since 2004-2005, the vibes in EverBank Stadium couldn't be more solemn. 

The energy surrounding the Jaguars when they were 6-2 and riding a five-game winning streak entering their bye week? Gone. 

The optimism surrounding the Jaguars when they were 8-3 and fresh off a statement win vs. the Houston Texans, with the playoffs seeming like a virtual lock? That is gone too. 

Instead, the Jaguars have been forced into a corner. Their backs are firmly against the wall, a result of a three-game losing streak in which the Jaguars have gone 0-2 at home, lost to two backup quarterbacks, and simply have continued to beat themselves.

“That would be the ideal thing, right? Just to try to play a clean game and that’s rare that you’re going to play a clean game. There’s always going to be things that come up," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday. 

"You want to play well and win, right? Right now, we haven’t done that enough, consistently enough. But like I said, I think the guys see the mistakes, we continue to point out the mistakes. But we also got to point out the good and let them know that there is a lot of positive out there as well, show them that too. As coaches, we’re not always harping on the negativity. It seems like that’s the easy thing to do. You want to make sure that your guys are engaged each week, they’re energized each week, and they’ve got hope and you’re not just trying to squash that dream.”

To say the Jaguars haven't played well enough during their losing streak would be an understatement, but it hasn't been just the last three weeks.

All season long, the Jaguars have only gone as far as Lawrence has taken them. The offense has lacked easy buttons to push for a variety of reasons. 

Whether injuries at wide receiver, where Christian Kirk has landed on injured reserve and Zay Jones has been injured for virtually the entire season. 

Whether it is a revolving door along the left side of the offensive line, where the Jaguars have had four different left tackles and four different left guards all take significant snaps.

Whether it is a running game that has remained stagnant all season long, ranking 29th in both EPA/Play and Success Rate, forcing the Jaguars to play with one hand behind their back. 

No matter the reasons, the Jaguars have failed to elevate their play around the quarterback in 2023. After providing Lawrence with a safety net in terms of both scheme and supporting cast in 2022, the same scheme and mostly the same cast has regressed this year, putting all of the Jaguars' chances week in and week out on Lawrence.

This one's pretty wild:

On pass plays that aren't WR/TE screens, the Jags are 10th in passing success rate.

With those plays, they drop all the way to 16th.

They're dead last in success rate on WR/TE screens. By a lot. Gap between them and 31st is bigger than 31st and 22nd.

— Robert Mays (@robertmays) December 20, 2023

As a result, the Jaguars are where they are today. Looking behind their shoulders at the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts on their heels, and potentially without their star quarterback in Week 16.

"We’re still in first place I think, fourth in the AFC. We’ve got a chance to accomplish a goal that we set out to do, that’s to win the AFC South. Obviously, we’re making it hard on ourselves but we have to stay focused on that," Pederson said. 

"I think so much sometimes we focus on the negative all the time and not the positive, we’ve got to find the good too and fill our player’s heads with positive this time of year. We feel like we’re still a good football team, we’ve played like it at times. It’s just at times we don’t look very good. Last night was offensively didn’t look very good at times. There were moments of playing with anybody out there. It’s all things in our control, control what you can control. That’s just what we have to do and it’s not a situation where, I think one of the reporters last night asked me are you gripping the bat too tight. We can’t do that. We can’t begin to panic, begin to press, we got to continue to play, practice hard, and make a conscious effort to correct things we can.”

Whether the Jaguars can survive Week 16 and potentially hold off one of the biggest late-season collapses in franchise history will largely depend on whether Lawrence can clear concussion protocol in time for the game. 

If Lawrence can't, the Jaguars season very well can be over. Much like in every other week this year, Lawrence will determine how far the Jaguars go. Three years into his career, it shouldn't be that way.