Why the Jaguars' Clash with the Bengals Will Depend on the Line of Scrimmage
The Jacksonville Jaguars are finally hosting Monday Night Football again after a 12-year hiatus. The Jags are 8-3, in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and facing a Cincinnati Bengals team that is down on its luck after a season-ending wrist injury to quarterback Joe Burrow.
But this will not be an “easy” win. Primetime clashes rarely are for Jacksonville, and this game isn’t decided just because Burrow’s out. In fact, the Jaguars need to prepare for a gritty, hard-nosed contest that will be won or lost on the line of scrimmage.
And that’s not been an area that the Jaguars have consistently won. The offensive line has had good overall performances, but the losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers come to mind. Over those two games, Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence was sacked nine times and RB Travis Etienne averaged less than 4 yards per carry.
Now, a Bengals defensive line that knows the game rests on its shoulder comes to Duval County. Cincinnati DE Trey Hendrickson is having another standout season with 10.5 sacks, but DE Sam Hubbard and DT BJ Hill both have four as well. This is not a team dependent on one rusher, but can create pressure from across the line.
The importance of offensive line play is only magnified when looking at the red zone splits. The Jaguars score touchdowns after hitting the red zone 48.39% of the time, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has hung tough near the goal line by allowing TDs 51.16% of the time, which ranks 10th in the league.
All season, the Bengals have given up a ton of yards but have made impact plays. They’re second-to-last in the NFL in total yards allowed and rushing yards allowed, but just 19th in total points allowed. Those aren’t the marks of a stalwart defense, but they do signify that they could be a problem for an offensive line that has shown some weakness.
Conversely, the Jaguars’ defensive line has an equally important task. With Browning set to start, it’s easy to downplay the Bengals offense. But the reality is that they still have an elite group of weapons that can easily punish Jacksonville in the right situation.
For example, Joe Mixon hasn’t had a banner year as the Bengals have struggled to create holes for their RB. They’re averaging 3.8 yards per rush, fifth-worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has been strong against the run, allowing just 87.4 rushing yards per game. That ranks 4th in the NFL.
Living up to those numbers is critical, as it forces Cincinnati’s hand with Browning. Mixon is not to be taken lightly, but winning in an area that Jacksonville is statistically strong in is the first step to locking down the Bengals defense.
Simultaneously, the Jaguars need DE Josh Allen to continue his All-Pro pace. Allen is coming off a monstrous 2.5-sack performance, while Cincinnati allowed Browning to be sacked four times last Sunday.
But Allen getting his due likely won’t be enough. Travon Walker and other fellow defensive linemen like Folorunso Fatukasi, Roy Robertson-Harris and Adam Gotsis don’t need to all register sacks, but they each need to contribute to the pressure and hurrying of Browning to prevent any deep shots to the likes of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Of course, Cincinnati can circumvent the pass rush by doing quick-ball plays to Chase, Higgins and Tyler Boyd. But with 20 takeaways on the year, the Jaguars should be comfortable with their chances if Browning is throwing early and often.
There are certainly scenarios where the Jaguars blowout Cincinnati and cruise to 9-3. But the core of this Bengals team played in a Super Bowl just two seasons ago, has wounded pride and All-Pro quality players on both sides of the ball.
At the end of the day, being more physical where it matters is still king.
