Why the Jaguars Would Have Trouble Trading Down in 2025 NFL Draft

With the lack of top-level talent at the quarterback position in the 2025 NFL Draft, trading down would be a pipedream for the Jaguars.

Nov 29, 2024; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) prepares to pass the ball in the third quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

When it comes to the NFL Draft, there are cliches that are born each year that never actually match reality.

One of those cliches is the art of the trade down. To many, the best option for any team -- whether picking No. 1 or No. 32 -- is to trade down.

Don't like the options in the top-5? Just trade down.

Have too many holes to fill with one pick? Just trade down.

However, the sad truth is that trading down is never as easy as it seems. And when it comes to the 2025 NFL Draft, teams like the Jaguars may learn the hard way.

If the Jaguars land a pick as high as the No. 3 pick -- and perhaps even the No. 2 pick -- their chances to trade back and stockpile picks will likely be as low as it was when they picked No. 1 in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Simply put, trading down that early in the draft usually requires a quarterback-needy team being enticed enough to pull the trigger. Whether it is about them falling in love with their guy or out of sheer desperation, quarterbacks are what move the need in early first-round trade ups.

And in this year's class, it is hard to imagine many teams are going to want to put their long-term future into the hands of one of the weakest quarterback classes in recent years.

Chances are, Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders will be the top pick off the board to whichever quarterback-needy team picks No. 1. After him, Miami quarterback Cam Ward may have enough talent to sway a team into moving up for him.

After that though, the class is barren. The odds of there being three first-round quarterbacks alone are already low, let alone enough quarterbacks to warrant a team moving up.

The Jaguars have a lot of holes on their roster. Too many holes to fill with one pick. But the chances of the Jaguars turning it into a reality are far-fetched, even in December.

“Well, if you talk to the analytics people, they’ll tell you never move up. Acquire as many darts as you can, keep moving back. You just got to look at the board and let the board speak," Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said in April.

"We spent 360-something days putting this thing together and to try to make something happen and force something to happen, sometimes backfires on you. You chase something and it doesn’t pan out, so you lose out there and then you lose out on the guy you would’ve picked and the two guys you would’ve picked with the other picks you gave up. If you’re going to move up, you better be right.”

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