Why the Steelers and George Pickens Will Need Their Own Form of Hope vs. Jaguars' Defense
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens is a baller. There’s not much of a question about that. He’s on pace for 1,416 receiving yards in his second NFL season.
He does not know what he’s talking about when it comes to the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense.
On Oct. 26, Pickens took aim at the Jacksonville defense calling it a “hope defense.” He explained that a hope defense that relies on its stars up front to cover for lackluster players behind that. But anyone that has watched the Jaguars defense, or looked at the numbers, should know that simply isn’t the case.
Starting on the surface, this is a defense that held the Kansas City Chiefs to 17 points and the Buffalo Bills to 7 points for the first 52 minutes of Week 5. The Bills scored two touchdowns in those final minutes, but both were scored while Buffalo trailed Jacksonville by two scores.
The mention of a two-score lead takes a little bit deeper. In response to Pickens’ comments, Jaguar Report’s John Shipley highlighted how no NFL defense has been thrown against more in the past three weeks than Jacksonville.
Opposing QBs have averaged 50 throws per game over those three weeks. To finish 10th in the NFL in yards per attempt over that span is a testament to defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell’s plan and the execution of the secondary.
The takeaway is simple: the Jaguars defense is giving up yards and points, but they’re giving them up slowly and making opposing passing offenses wildly inefficient. Any team can throw for 300 yards and a couple TDs if they throw 40+ times a game every game, just ask the 2015 Jaguars led by Blake Bortles.
And to flip the mirror, the Jaguars are going up against Kenny Pickett. The second-year Steelers QB has averaged 210 passing yards per game and thrown just five touchdowns to four interceptions.
He is averaging a meager 6.8 yards per passing attempt, and has thrown less than 30 times in three of the past four games after throwing three interceptions in his first two games (46 and 30 attempts respectively.)
What does that mean? Head coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are keeping Pickett on a tight leash. They don’t want him throwing 50 times a game, because if he does, he will likely turn the ball over while not improving his efficiency.
Just like how you can reach arbitrary passing yard totals by throwing enough, you can also throw a lot of INTs (again, shoutout Blake Bortles). Pickens’ presence on Pittsburgh has given them a big-play weapon, but they still only average 192.2 yards per game through the air despite him averaging 83.3 yards per game.
That’s maybe the craziest thing about Pickens’ comments: the Jaguars defense probably won’t have to “hope.” They aren’t playing an elite QB, they’re playing against one of the least efficient and lethal quarterbacks in the NFL on Sunday. He has technically protected the ball better, but, in terms of takeaways, the Jaguars are currently the most dangerous team in the NFL.
Their 16 takeaways are two more than the next closest squad, nine of which were interceptions. They’ve picked off every QB they’ve played so far, from Mahomes to Minshew.
It leaves Pittsburgh OC Matt Canada and Pickett in an interesting situation. They can take more risks, and play into a Jaguars secondary that looks for interceptions. Or, they can stick to running, dinking and dunking in order to avoid the big mistakes but face an uphill climb against a team that is 4th in the NFL in yards per rush.
The Jaguars defense is far from perfect. It’s not the best in the league. But they are very good at what they do, and Pickett, Pickens and Pittsburgh will need a special game in order to break the trends of their offense.
