Mike Williams New York Jets Contract Details: Steal or Massive Overpay?

Mike Williams hasn't made a Pro Bowl and is coming off a season in which he tore his ACL. Should New York Jets fans be happy or concerned with the latest contract details?

Nov 22, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (81) / Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The second week of free agency ended as well as any New York Jets fan could have hoped for.

Not only did the organization manage to solve one of their offensive line troubles, but New York's front office also moved quick to address the obvious need at receiver with one of the more talented players available.

When Mike Williams signed a one-year free agent deal with the Jets worth up to $15 million on Tuesday, the organization was able to acquire the kind of big-body, quick second option in the passing game that they were looking for once the offseason actually began.

Nov 22, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) / Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

As the contract details become public, though, some question the deal that Williams received from New York in the first place. Is the receiver's new contract with Gang Green a massive overpay or a genius steal for an organization needing a quality other option outside Garrett Wilson?

Today, we break down that very question, here.

Mike Williams Contract Details

Williams' contract carries a base salary of $5 million as reported by Spotrac. He carries a cap hit of just under $6 million but a dead cap charge of over $8 million. There are additional void years later on to spread out his guarantees and overall value, but his $8.3 million in guarantees for the 2024 season is the fifth-most of free agent receivers this offseason.

In terms of his overall salary, the base guarantees of the contract actually put the former Clemson product as the 40th highest-paid receiver across the NFL - behind players like current Jets wideout Allen Lazard, New England Patriots wideout Juju Smith-Schuster, and Houston Texan

Remember, just because a player can make "up to" a certain amount, doesn't mean he will see all that money in the end. The $15 million that Williams can earn is heavily based on game incentives.
That means if Williams' long-history of injury problems were to persist into 2024, he wouldn't get the top dollar that other free agent players are getting at his position.

Now that we have the actual details of his new deal, let's break down whether the Jets overpaid for an injury-prone wideout, or got a steal on a high-flight talent.

Mike Williams - Overpaid or Steal?

As with any contract debate, we first need to understand why a talented player may have gotten less than the overall market would have dictated.

For Williams, his lack of availability is the chief concern. The former Charger suffered a torn ACL last season, and has dealt with several nagging issues throughout his career. Whether it was a broken back, ankle issue, or concussion, the 29-year-old has to prove he can stay on the field for a full season - something he has not done in his NFL career. By not reaching a Pro Bowl or All0-Pro team, there are some that could argue he has not lived up to his billing as a top 10 overall pick back from the 2017 Draft.

When he is healthy, though, there aren't many receivers like Williams.

In 62 starts he has caught over 300 passes for 4,800 yards, and 31 touchdowns. His 20.4 yards per reception in 2019 led the league while always possessing the skill to be a big-play target for a wide array of quarterbacks. With Aaron Rodgers now in New York, there is a reason to think why the Jets would be pleased to pair Williams with the four-time NFL MVP.

$8 million may seem like an overpay, but for a player of Williams' skillset, and compared to other players at his position, the market could describe the new contract as a steal of a move, and a big risk for the player. Should Williams dominate in 2024, it could line him up for a massive payday the following offseason. If he struggled with injuries again, it might be even harder to procure a contract entering 2025.

For the Jets, to pay a wide receiver under the market average while trusting him to be a quality second option out wide is an enormous low-risk, high-reward strategy. Fans could very well be looking at a case where Williams' outperforms his contract as the 40th-highest-paid receiver and the team is succeeding beyond their wildest dreams.

At the very worst, New York will struggle again in 2024, but won't have to worry about major cap penalties for a low-risk player in their new receiver.

Some may not like the $8 million charge for him, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a terrific deal for the franchise.