Computer Model Makes Interesting Prediction for Jets and Patriots Rematch

The New York Jets and New England Patriots could be in for a much closer matchup than last time according to a computer model.

Sep 19, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) gets sacked hard by New York Jets linebacker Jamien Sherwood (44) in the 4th quarter at MetLife Stadium. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The New York Jets and New England Patriots are preparing for their second matchup of the season and could be in for a much more competitive game this time around.

Every week, CBS Sports shares the SportsLine computer model's take on each NFL game after simulating each matchup 10,000 times. The model had an interesting opinion on how the game in which the Jets are heavily favored will turn out.

"The Patriots cover at home versus New York in well over 50% of simulations. Both teams are on lengthy losing streaks, but New England owns the recent history in this matchup. In the post-Tom Brady era (since 2020), the Patriots are 7-2 outright and 6-3 against the spread versus the Jets," said the staff. "New England is projected to keep this game close as and the model also says the Under (41.5) hits in over 60% of simulations."

New York heads into the game as favorites by a touchdown. While a splashy win may be the most entertaining result for Jets fans, the numbers say not to expect it.

When the two teams met earlier in the year, New York handled business with ease, cruising to a 24-3 victory. Since that game, neither team has won a game.

There are a couple of reasons that this game could end up differently than the last one.

The most obvious is that this time, the two teams are meeting in Foxborough. While the Patriots faithful isn't as fired as they may have been when the team was winning every week, home field advantage still matters.

Another factor in the last game was the fact that it was a short week, the first of Jerod Mayo's coaching career. The team had less time to prepare than they normally would have.

This time, it's still not a normal week since New England played in London last Sunday.

Maybe the most important, difference, though, is that the Patriots are trotting out Drake Maye as the starter this time.

Maye had his NFL debut during the Week 3 matchup and went 4-for-8 for 22 yards. His first two career starts didn't lead to wins, but he is clearly more electric of a player than Jacoby Brissett was behind center.

The Jets will simply have to prepare differently than they did last time. With the franchise desperate for a win, perhaps they can will another convincing victory despite the changes.