Former NFL Scout: 16 Consensus First-Round Picks To Avoid

Daniel Kelly, who once worked as a Jets scout, reveals why he thinks these 16 top-ranked prospects should not be picked in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft.

There are 16 consensus first-round picks on major media platforms that are over-graded:

1. Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

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Projected by NFL.com No. 1, CBS Sports No. 4, PFF No. 30, Yahoo No. 2 and Touchdown Wire No. 1

Kelly’s Projection: Second Round (DT)

2021 Game Film: Kentucky, Arkansas, Clemson and South Carolina

Why: Lacks speed and moves to win the edge.

2. Evan Neal, LT, Alabama

Projected by NFL.com No. 3, CBS Sports No. 4, PFF No. 9, Yahoo No. 2 and Touchdown Wire No. 6

Kelly’s Projection: Second Round (RT/G)

2021 Game Film: Miami, Ole Miss and Auburn

Why: Questionable lateral foot speed at 350 pounds, and was 390 in high school.

3. Charles Cross, LT, Mississippi State

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Projected by NFL.com No. 6, CBS Sports No. 6, PFF No. 6, Yahoo No. 9 and Touchdown Wire No. 5

2021 Game Film: Memphis State, Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama (2020 Alabama)

Kelly’s Projection: Second Round

Why: Lacks anchor and lateral foot speed.

4. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

Projected by NFL.com No. 9, CBS Sports No. 12, PFF No. 3, Yahoo No. 10 and Touchdown Wire No. 9

Kelly’s Projection: Second Round (Medical)

2021 Game Film: UCLA, McNeese and Central Michigan

Why: Injuries and no interceptions since 2019.

5. Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, FSU

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Projected by NFL.com No. 10, CBS Sports No. 14, PFF No. 13, Yahoo No. 13 and Touchdown Wire No. 7

Kelly’s Projection: Fifth Round

2021 Game Film: North Carolina, Miami and North Carolina State

Why: Soft and lacks speed and moves.

6. Drake London, WR, USC

Projected by NFL.com No. 11, CBS Sports No. 13, PFF No. 15, Yahoo No. 11, Touchdown Wire No. 18

Kelly’s Projection: Fourth or Fifth Round (Medical)

2021 Game Film: Notre Dame, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State

Why: Possession receiver with average hands (88 catches/124 targets).

7. George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

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Projected by NFL.com No. 14, PFF No. 10, Yahoo No. 30 and Touchdown Wire No. 21

Kelly’s Projection: Second or Third Round (3-4 OLB)

2021 Game Film: Iowa, Oregon State, Notre Dame and Ohio State

Why: Rigid and lacks necessary speed and power.

8. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Projected by NFL.com No. 12, CBS Sports No. 11, PFF No. 4, Yahoo No. 7 and Touchdown Wire No. 2

Kelly’s Projection: Third Round (Medical)

2021 Game Film: FSU and Purdue

Why: Quitter who is reluctant in run support and has questionable instincts.

9. Trevor Penning, LT, Northern Iowa

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Projected by NFL.com No. 17, CBS Sports No. 10, Yahoo No. 19 and Touchdown Wire No. 24.

Kelly’s Projection: Fifth to Seventh Round (RT)

2021 Game Film: Iowa State, North Dakota State University and Southern Illinois

Why: Lightweight anchor and got spanked at Senior Bowl practices.

10. Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

Projected by NFL.com No. 20, CBS Sports No. 32 and Yahoo No. 20

Kelly’s Projection: Fifth Round

2021 Game Film: Western Michigan, Georgia Tech and Clemson

Why: Uncomfortable in the pocket and an unpolished downfield passer.

11. Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Projected by NFL.com No. 22, CBS Sports No. 15, PFF No. 27, Yahoo No. 14 and Touchdown Wire No. 17

Kelly’s Projection: Fifth Round

2021 Game Film: Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama and Clemson

Why: Underachieving pass rusher and a limited area run defender. 

12. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State 

Projected by NFL.com No. 23, CBS Sports No. 22, PFF No. 16, Yahoo No. 22 and Touchdown Wire No. 22

Kelly’s Projection: Fifth Round 

2021 Game Film: University of Minnesota, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan State and Purdue 

Why: Easily re-routed and sloppy routes. 

13. Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State University 

Projected by NFL.com No. 28, PFF No. 22 and Yahoo No. 29

Kelly’s Projection: Fourth to Seventh Round 

2021 Game Film: Northern Iowa, South Dakota, Missouri State, Eastern Illinois and Eastern Washington(Spring)

Why: Runs a 4.65 in the short to intermediate levels and labors to change direction. 

14. Boye Mafe, EDGE, University of Minnesota 

Projected by NFL.com No. 30, CBS Sports No. 23 and PFF No. 28

Kelly’s ProjectIon: Third Round 

2021 Game Film: Ohio State, Nebraska and Maryland 

Why: One-trick speed rusher with no pass-rush moves. 

15. Tyler Smith, LT, Tulsa 

Projected by NFL.com No. 26, Yahoo No. 28 and Touchdown Wire No. 26 

Kelly’s Projection: Third or Fourth Round (OG)

2021 Game Film: Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Houston 

Why: Raw tackle with shoddy foot and handwork. 

16. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan 

Projected by NFL.com No. 27, Yahoo No. 32 and Touchdown Wire No. 32 

Kelly’s Projection: Third Round 

2021 Game Film: Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa 

Why: Lacks hips to play corner and limited reps at safety. 

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