New York Jets Set for Franchise-Altering Season per Latest Simulation

The New York Jets find themselves on the right side of things in a full-season simulation for the 2024 NFL season.

Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) hits Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after a catch during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

This is the time of year for predictions, prognostications and simulations as everyone tries to figure out exactly how the new NFL season will unfold.

ESPN recently did 20,000 separate simulations of the 2024 season as it tries to determine how the drama will play out.

Recently, the site picked out one of those simulations and wrote about it.

The New York Jets will be quite happy if this is how things turn out.

ESPN called it simulation No. 515 and the Jets do things in this simulation that they haven’t done in a long time.

In this simulation, New York ends up running the AFC East, finishing 12-5 and earning the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. The article notes that quarterback Aaron Rodgers finishes in the top eight of the site’s QBR a year after he missed all of 2023 with a torn Achilles tendon.

But what really drives the Jets to the top of the division is their defense, one that many consider to be one of the best in the NFL. In this simulation, cornerback Sauce Gardner has the best year of his young career and ends up earning NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors.

This simulation puts New York in the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. In this particular universe the Jets win their first two playoff games at home, beating the Miami Dolphins, 23-14, in the wild-card round and the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-9, in the divisional round.

So New York ends up going to the Super Bowl in the simulation, right? Well, not quite. Simulations can only get one so far when one plays in the same conference with the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs.

The Jets get back to the AFC title game for the first time in 14 seasons, but in this simulation they fell to the Chiefs, 31-23.

New York hasn’t had a season quite like that in a long time. The last time New York won 10 or more games in the season was 2015. It failed to make the playoffs.

Since then, the Jets haven't had a winning season and they've finished either third or fourth in their division. Each of the last two seasons coach Robert Saleh has led New York to a 7-10 record.

As for all 20,000 simulations created by ESPN, the site is projecting that New York will win 9.2 games, which is close to how most experts have them finishing the season.

The full set of simulations also gives the Jets a 52.9% chance of making the playoffs, a 24.6% chance of winning the division, a 26.9% chance of making the divisional playoffs, an 11.7% chance of making the conference championship game, a 4.9% chance of making the Super Bowl and a 1.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

So, as the saying goes, you're saying there's a chance?