Will Zach Wilson Produce Better Numbers Than Trevor Lawrence This Season?

Will New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson produce better rookie numbers than Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence? Wilson and Lawrence face off in Week 16

Handout Photo-USA TODAY Sports // Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The top two quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL draft are poised to produce some impressive numbers during their rookie seasons. 

All signs point toward Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson starting at quarterback right away for their respective teams, playing in all 17 games barring injuries or unforeseen circumstances. 

That in mind, which signal-caller will have the better season?

ESPN made some predictions on Tuesday, coming up with the specific statistics that each rookie quarterback will have by the end of this coming season. While it's close, Wilson is listed to finish behind Lawrence in passing yards and passing touchdowns. 

Here are the predictions, from ESPN writer Mike Clay:

Passing yards and touchdowns

1. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 4,269 yards, 23 pass TDs

2. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 3,993 yards, 20 pass TDs

3. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 3,187 yards, 18 pass TDs

4. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: 2,464 yards, 16 pass TDs

5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 1,410 yards, 7 pass TDs

Clay goes on to reiterate that Wilson and Lawrence are the only two quarterbacks from this class that will be Week 1 starters. That explains the gap in numbers between Wilson and Justin Fields—who is projected to take over for Andy Dalton in Week 4.

To put those numbers into perspective, Justin Herbert of the Chargers threw for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2020. That was in 15 games, a big reason why he was recognized as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Give Lawrence and Wilson a full season, and they could knock on the door of those numbers as well. Wilson will have plenty of targets to work with through the air as well, a luxury Sam Darnold didn't exactly have during his tenure in green and white. 

When it comes to rushing yards from rookie quarterbacks, Lawrence and Wilson won't be at the top of the leaderboard, but the order between the two remains the same.

Quarterback rushing yards

1. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 463

2. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: 437

3. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 288

4. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 264

5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 67

Both Wilson and Lawrence demonstrated their mobility in college, but ESPN has Fields and Trey Lance leading the way on the ground in 2021. 

Judging by how close these projections are for Lawrence and Wilson, it's completely feasible that the Jets' quarterback can edge out the No. 1 overall pick statistically. It'll just depend on their health, the injuries across their respective rosters and how quickly they can adjust to the next level, starting in Week 1.

Either way, we'll get a chance to see those two signal-callers battle it out in their first head-to-head matchup this December in Week 16.

MORE:

• Four Jets That Will Have Breakout Seasons in 2021
• NFL Insider Says Jets 'Need' This 'Perfect' Backup Quarterback
• Zach Wilson Ranked Among Worst NFL Starting Quarterbacks For 2021 Season

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