Evaluating Zach Wilson, Week 2: The Four-Pick Game

In this film breakdown, relive Zach Wilson's second NFL start, a four-interception performance in a loss to the Patriots.

After a Week 1 loss to former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers, New York turned its focus to its home opener against its division rival and big brother New England Patriots. 

Bill Belichick and his defenses have haunted rookie quarterbacks over the last two decades — holding a career record of 25-6 — with an average margin of victory in the double digits. Just as a quick refresher, let’s see how Jets rookie quarterbacks have done in their first career starts against the Patriots over the last decade and a half.

• Mark Sanchez, 2009: 14-for-22, 163 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks
• Geno Smith, 2013: 15-for-35, 214 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTs, 4 sacks
• Sam Darnold, 2018: 16-for-28, 167 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks

Not a successful bunch by any means, and as we’ll see below, Wilson keeps the status quo. 

While none of the names above turned out to be world-beaters at the position, Belichick’s defenses have done just as well against some of the best rookies we’ve seen in recent years. It’s extremely rare for any rookie to perform well in their first go against this defense.

As a weekly reminder, here’s what we’re looking at for Wilson as he develops over the course of his rookie season.

• Confidence on open first reads
• Standard throwing motion on the “simple” throws
• Throwing receivers open
• Giving up on dead plays

CREDIT: Clips used in this story are from NFL GamePass.

Week 2: The New England Patriots

Wilson: 19-for-33, 210 yards, 0 TD, 4 INTs, 4 sacks

This is unfair as it can get for a quarterback in his first two starts, having to face the deceiving and aggressive New England defense after being bulldozed by the overpowering Carolina front the week prior. Let’s get the interceptions out of the way first, before going into the rest of Wilson’s play.

His first, coming on his first pass of the day, is a real head-scratcher for both Wilson and his target Corey Davis. It almost seems as if there’s an open area of the field if Davis continued his route toward the sideline, but instead he sits at the center of the field sandwiched between his defender and a safety over the top.

Play design aside, this throw just shouldn’t have been made. Davis’ defender had him well-covered during the duration of the route, and especially when he sat at the middle of the field. There’s really no one else open and Wilson is just a second away from taking a hit, but this is one of those plays where you just need to live to see another day and either take the hit or throw it toward a receiver’s feet.

Interception number two, on Wilson’s very next pass attempt, is less of his fault but still a play that could’ve been avoided. Rolling out of the pocket on play action, Wilson has a very open and ready-to-run Elijah Moore. After hesitating on taking the simple completion, albeit one that wouldn’t have gone for many yards, Wilson extends the play just a hair longer before making a toss to Davis streaking across the field.

This ball, while a little high, is 100% catchable and should’ve been made by the $37 million man. Instead, it slides right through his hands and redirects into safety Adrian Phillips’ gloves.

Now this interception is on Davis and is unlucky to end up as a pick, but Wilson did have an open target immediately and should’ve started this drive off with an easy completion. So much of a young quarterback’s game is rhythmic and taking the easy throw on your first attempt following a pick can help the brain move on from the poor play quicker. I appreciate his vision and patience to let something develop down the field, it just ended up backfiring substantially.

Can’t cut Wilson any slack on his third pick, as this throw was both underthrown and lacked the velocity to make it to his target on time. Throwing from the left hash all the way to the right sideline is an extremely dangerous play to try and make, and this one was easily nabbed by All-Pro cornerback J.C. Jackson.

More of the same for his final pick of the day, with a throw that should’ve never been attempted into a crowded part of field. Wilson should’ve either taken off on the run or thrown the ball out of play, as no one was open, but instead he lofts what looked like a punt return into safety Devin McCourty’s arms.

All four were avoidable, except for the tipped pass on his second interception which I’ll give him a pass on, with three of them being unnecessary and erratic.

Not every dead play was turned into a bad mistake by Wilson, as he seemed to do a nice job at times recognizing the pressure and taking off with his legs to pick up some added yards. This one right here rips off for a fresh set of down, avoiding what would’ve been a surefire sack if he didn’t bail when he did and manages to get out of bounds untouched.

After being careless and a little too aggressive with the ball in the first half, Wilson slowed down his game a bit after his fourth pick early in the third quarter. The subsequent drives saw a bit more of first-read throws, check downs and better decision making. Here, the play following that previously mentioned scramble, Wilson Elijah Moore on a clean, first-read out route for an eight-yard gain.

With a mild-mannered Wilson in the second half the Jets were finally able to start sustaining longer drives, with all but one in the second half going for eight-plus plays. They were more run-centric than anything, but No. 2 was quick with his decisions and minimized any further potential damage. Sure, this smarter play should’ve come in the first half and not when you’re down 19-3, but in a rebuilding season where expectations are low, I’m not going to crush them for how this game played out.

It wasn’t all better, however, with him still struggling to pull the trigger on open receivers on several occasions. Wilson has the right idea on this toss into a soft part of New England’s coverage, but his hesitance killed the play as his target ran out of room to run and the ball sailed out of bounds.

It feels obligatory to point out Wilson threw a ball over the head of his running back in the flat again, a strange tenancy we saw in college and in Week 1. There are times where he hits the target perfectly fine, but the miscue seems way more frequent than it should be.

There are some other minor throws in this game that could be discussed, but I think the biggest thing to dissect in this game was the four picks and what the thought process behind them was. As with last week, we’ll finish with his best throw of the day, and alongside that I’ll start giving out some final grades for each week (he earned a 5/10 from me in Week 1).

This week’s best throw was between two great options, and surprisingly both were difficult throws of about 35-plus yards down the left sideline. The winner, a 27-yard dart to Braxton Berrios, was a beauty despite a very tight window and being brought down upon his release.

Final Grade: 2/10

Onward we move, where next week we’ll examine his performance in the team’s 26-0 loss to the Denver Broncos. It’s another rough go for Zach, but we’re only a few games away from getting to the turning point of his rookie season.

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