2 Key Matchups That Will Determine Whether Lions Beat Packers

Effectiveness of Lions’ run game, run defense will determine whether Detroit beats Green Bay.

Nov 23, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) gets pulled down by his jersey from behind by Green Bay Packers linebacker Rashan Gary (52) in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The effectiveness of the Lions’ run game and run defense will go a long way toward determining the outcome of Detroit's Week 9 NFC North clash with Green Bay.

Entering Sunday, Dan Campbell's squad has produced the sixth-most rushing yards (1097) and has allowed the fifth-fewest yards on the ground (713).

Detroit’s dynamic backfield tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has accounted for the bulk of those rushing yards (1,006). Plus, the duo has generated all of the team's scores on the ground (13).

With rain in the forecast Sunday, expect Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to dial up a healthy amount of carries for both Gibbs and Montgomery. The duo will be tested against the Packers’ run defense, which has allowed the 10th-fewest ground yards (893) and the eight-fewest yards per carry (4.3) through eight weeks.

Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is well aware of Gibbs, who starred at Georgia Tech before transferring to Alabama, from his days as the head coach at Boston College. Hafley squared off with the second-year back twice during that time.

“It's going to be about alignments, being precise with them, understanding the leverage you should have on the ball-carrier, and then setting edges,” Hafley said of the challenge that Gibbs poses. “You have to set edges and send the ball back. If this guy gets the perimeter and he doesn't have to stutter his feet, there's a chance he'll be gone.”

Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the ball, Detroit's fifth-ranked run defense – which has allowed 713 total rushing yards this season – will square off with a very capable Green Bay rushing attack. Thus far this season, the Packers have amassed 1,255 yards on the ground (the fifth-biggest total in the NFL). Packers lead back Josh Jacobs, dealing with an ankle injury, has rushed for 667 of those yards (the fourth-most rushing yards in the league in 2024).

“I remember going to see his workout when he was at Alabama, and I was impressed with him. And now to be able to see how he is in the NFL and the violent, physical runner that he is, you just know that their offensive line looks forward to blocking for that man,” Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said about Jacobs. “There’s a tick-up on how they’re operating, as far as the violence and the physical nature of the game, because of who they have running the ball.”

In this Week 9 matchup, I'm predicting that Jacobs will compile 74 yards and a score on 22 carries. Plus, I believe that the tandem of Gibbs and Montgomery will produce 124 yards and two touchdowns on 31 total carries.