Is Jared Goff Elite NFL Quarterback?
Detroit Lions veteran signal-caller Jared Goff experienced a career resurgence of sorts in 2022.
In his second season with the Lions, he established a solid rapport with offensive play-caller Ben Johnson, and subsequently found his groove.
He proceeded to throw for 29 touchdowns and toss just seven interceptions on 587 pass attempts, leading to the lowest interception percentage of his career (1.2 percent). Additionally, he failed to throw a single interception during Detroit's final nine games of the season. And, over that same span, Goff produced 15 touchdowns, and guided the Lions to a 7-2 record.
Now the hope is that he carries his efficient play over from late in the year to the upcoming season. According to Detroit quarterbacks coach Mark Brunell, that will come with further "consistency."
“What he did well with last year was his decision-making. And, that stretch that we made, he was just taking care of the ball, smart with the football. It’s continuing that," Brunell said, when asked about the “biggest challenge” for Goff to overcome coming off his productive 2022 campaign. "That’s at the top of the list, and I think he’ll do that.”
During the aforementioned nine-game stretch to end the season, Goff finished No. 2 in Total QBR (69.8), ranking only behind the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes.
For the season as a whole, Goff recorded a 61.1 QBR – the fifth-best mark among all signal-callers in 2022. The only year in which he amassed a higher QBR came in 2018, when he was a member of the Los Angeles Rams (63.6).
His Pro Bowl campaign in '22 has got ESPN thinking about whether the 2016 No. 1 overall pick, heading into his eighth NFL season, deserves a contract extension.
As ESPN reporter Dan Graziano explains, "Goff, who took the Rams to the Super Bowl five seasons ago, is still only 28. He's signed for the next two years at the relative bargain price of $26.48 million per year. That number, combined with his performance in 2022, makes him a candidate for an extension right now -- and he may well get one before the season starts. But he also may not, and if he doesn't, the next several months are going to determine a lot about Goff's future in the NFL."
Graziano believes that the Lions' team success in 2023 will play a determining factor in whether the organization inks the veteran passer to a new contract.
He added, "If he has a big year and leads the Lions to the playoffs, they could decide that he's worth signing up as their long-term QB solution. (Again, he'll only be 29 next offseason.) If he flops and/or the Lions fail to live up to their preseason expectations, it will be easy for Detroit to get out of the contract next spring. Goff is due no more guaranteed money, and he would be just $5 million in dead money against the cap in 2024."
If Goff replicates his '22 production in the upcoming season, he may very well deserve a contract extension at season's end. However, it won't put him in the conversation of the elite passers in the league.
At Goff's best, he is an efficient, relatively turnover-free quarterback. You can win with him under center, but you rarely can win because of him.
It's what separates him from the game-changing signal-callers who are truly elite – i.e. Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow.
Subsequently, Goff belongs in the next tier of quarterbacks. And guess what, that's not a bad thing for a Lions team looking to capture its first division title since 1993.
