Key Matchup: Lions Secondary vs. Bears Receivers

Detroit's secondary will be tested against the Bears' receivers.

Arizona Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) tries to catch the ball as Detroit Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold (0) deflects it away at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., Sep 22, 2024. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On Sunday, the Chicago Bears will look to take advantage of a weakened Detroit Lions secondary.

The Lions are down their most reliable cornerback for this Week 16 divisional matchup: Carlton Davis. Davis suffered a fractured jaw a week ago in Detroit's 48-42 loss to the Buffalo Bills, likely marking the end of his 2024 campaign.

Davis was in the midst of a productive debut season for the Lions, with 11 passes defensed and two interceptions to his name. He had also posted a Pro Football Focus overall grade of 74.5, the 25th-best mark among 216 qualified cornerbacks.

Losing Davis is undoubtedly a significant blow to Detroit's secondary, and in his place, rookie Terrion Arnold is expected to assume the No. 1 cornerback duties. 

Arnold has experienced his fair share of struggles this season. In 13 games, the former Crimson Tide defensive back has failed to record a single interception. Plus, he's allowed a passer rating of 97.2, has been penalized far too often (10 times) and has posted a dismal PFF coverage grade of 49.5. It's one of the worst pass-coverage marks in the league, and he's also earned an overall grade of just 49.7.

It's a tall ask of Arnold to be even remotely as productive as Davis.

Joining the first-year pro in the Lions’ cornerbacks rotation Sunday will be Amik Robertson and Kindle Vildor. Robertson and Vildor have also mightily struggled in coverage this season, with zero interceptions between the two of them and paltry PFF coverage marks of 54.7 and 46.7, respectively.

More: 97 Percent of NFL Experts Predict Lions to Defeat Bears Week 16

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And on top of all that, Brian Branch – who comprises one-half of Detroit's high-performing safety tandem with Kerby Joseph – is questionable for Sunday's contest with a calf injury. 

Despite the surplus of injuries that have piled up, Aaron Glenn isn't buying into the doom-and-gloom outlook for the Lions’ defense. 

“Listen, we’ve said this from the beginning: The next guy’s got to come up and play. That’s the reason why they’re here,” Glenn told reporters earlier this week. “And, I’ve said this also: I’m not going to disrespect any of the players that we have here, because they work their ass off just like everybody else. And, I hope that you guys don’t do that also, because they deserve a chance to go out there and play whenever their time is to go play.

“Our personnel department does a really good job of finding guys that fit who we are, and we’re going to put them on the field and we’re going to play.”

I believe the Bears’ receiving corps, featuring an impressive trio of D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, has a solid chance of feasting on Detroit's beleaguered secondary.

In Chicago's Thanksgiving showdown with Detroit, Moore, who leads all Bears receivers with 76 catches and 758 yards, recorded a game-high eight receptions and 97 yards. Also, he and Allen combined for three TD catches – two for Allen and one for Moore – in the losing effort for Chicago.

On Sunday, I'm expecting Moore and Allen to each finish with at least six catches and a touchdown. Specifically, I'm predicting Moore to amass eight catches for 82 yards and a score, and Allen to compile six receptions for 66 yards and a score.