Let Brad Holmes Cook

This may be the first Detroit Lions draft where the concerns are low about targeting players who will flop.

With the third pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select -- cornerback Jeff Okudah. 

Instantly, that feeling hits you deep down in the pit of your stomach. 

This is not going to end well. This could end very, very badly. This will end very, very badly. 

Instead of celebrating Detroit's draft pick, my first thoughts were which players drafted after Okduah would become All-Pros or future Pro Football Hall of Famers. 

Sure, fans of the team and kool-aid drinking online supporters told me it takes time for a defensive back to develop, or that targeting a quarterback was absolutely out of the question because Matthew Stafford one day would lead the team to a Super Bowl. 

Fast forward 365 days later, and Stafford marched into the owner's office and demanded a trade. 

Okudah had an underwhelming rookie campaign, and the front office that drafted him was dismissed. After just three seasons, Detroit's new coaching staff and personnel department quickly decided to move on from the ex-Buckeyes defensive back, shipping him to the Atlanta Falcons for pennies on the dollar. 

Talk about sending a message that a player is not part of your plans. 

Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes / © Junfu Han via Imagn Content Services, LLC

But, that is what leadership at the highest levels entails: Being decisive and moving on quickly from bad decisions. 

After two years on the job, Lions general manager Brad Holmes has rightfully earned the trust of supporters that the correct decisions will be made, ones that will benefit the organization. 

An evaluation of Holmes' first two drafts showcases the ability of an evaluator to work with his staff to target players that fit exactly what the established criteria called for. 

"I think some people just have the eye for talent," said Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown at the start of organized team activities. "They know. They know what talent looks like. They know what potential looks like. And, I think Brad has that eye. Obviously, he selected me, so what can I say? But, I'll just say, I think aside from all that, he's definitely made some great picks in the later rounds. And, like I said, I think some people just have that that eye for talent. You can't teach it. I feel like you're just born with it, and I think he has it."

Heading into the 2023 draft, many should not be concerned that the team won't come away with at least five players who will produce and become productive members of the roster. 

The decisions potentially being discussed internally and intensively are whether or not to trade up to select Will Anderson Jr., whether it finally is time to target a quarterback early and whether Georgia Bulldogs defensive lineman Jalen Carter is worth the risk, should he be available at No. 6. 

Quarterback Jared Goff and several members of the roster have publicly expressed their trust in Detroit's organization, based on the open and honest level of communication. 

"We’ve had good talks, more toward the end of last season or right after the end of last season. Everything has been clear and open," said Goff. "I’ve got all the trust in the world in Brad and Dan (Campbell) and everything they do, and (I'm) really excited to see what we do and where we go."

While normally the expectations are that the Lions will simply decide on all of the wrong options, there is a sense of confidence that the leaders in charge do actually have a plan and can execute it consistently. 

After two years, the players that remained see the changes in not only the culture, but also the level of talent being brought in to Allen Park. 

"I do think we have the foundation for a good football team," said Detroit left tackle Taylor Decker. "I do think we've added good pieces and a good staff. Can we get that all to come together? Can we get like that, that symbiosis of the offense with the defense, the coaching staff with the training staff and with the strength staff? Can we catch all that? Can we get all that working together? Because like I said, we have the makings of a good football team." 

When Holmes was first hired, he discussed his fascination with predictive science and how a front office could achieve success and also maintain it. 

“I just think making sure you’re aware of all possible angles and all possible outcomes that could happen, I think is very, very critical," said Holmes. "I’ll admit, I’m a nerd about predictive science and forecasting. I am because I think that’s our job. Our job is to predict the future, and I’m also a little bit of a nerd about the psychology of the process.”

Ahead of one of the most important drafts in Lions history, any reservations about Detroit's ability to execute correctly has steadily diminished. 

Let Brad Holmes cook.