Odds of Kenny Golladay Receiving Franchise Tag

Read more on the odds of Kenny Golladay receiving the franchise tag leading into Tuesday's 4 p.m. (EST) deadline

The Lions have until Tuesday at 4 p.m. (EST) to apply the franchise tag to No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Golladay. 

If they do, Brad Holmes & Co. will have to pay Golladay approximately $16.5 million for one year. 

Before the start of the NFL franchise-tag period on Feb. 23, many fans and pundits alike speculated that the Northern Illinois product would be the recipient of the tag. 

It doesn't appear to be as likely anymore, according to ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter. 

"Last year, these two sides had discussions about a long-term extension, and Kenny Golladay turned down somewhere around $18, $19 million a year, depending on who you want to believe," Schefter reported Monday on "Get Up", ESPN's Mike Greenberg-led morning program. "I think there’s a chance here, with a new regime in Detroit, that they could opt not to tag him at all, which would allow him to become one of the most coveted free agents out there." 

Kirthmon F. Dozier, Imagn Content Services, LLC

If he's brought back on the tag, he will account for nearly nine percent of Detroit's total salary cap for 2021. 

Now, if the 2017 third-round pick decides to walk in free agency, the organization will receive a compensatory, late third-round pick in next year's draft. 

If the 27-year-old wideout is truly seeking $18-$19M a year as part of a long-term extension, the Lions might be better off deciding not to tag him. Remember, he did suit up in just five games a year ago due to injury. 

Additionally and most importantly, Detroit's front office has bigger areas of need than at receiver -- specifically on the defensive side of the ball -- to allocate its resources toward this offseason. 

Plus, the organization could very well address the looming void at the position -- with Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola all set to be free agents -- in this April's NFL Draft. 

This year's draft class features a deep and talented group of pass-catchers, including Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, LSU wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and Alabama wideouts DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle at the top of the class (in no particular order). 

And each of them would come on rookie contracts, making them significantly cheaper than Golladay on a long-term deal.

For all of these reasons, I see the Lions deciding not to franchise tag the one-time Pro Bowl receiver. 

At this point, I put the odds of it happening at 48 percent.

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