Mailbag: What's the Long-Term Outlook on D'Andre Swift?

This week's SI All Lions mailbag features questions on D'Andre Swift's potential, Matt Patricia's future, should Romeo Okwara be given a long-term contract and more

It’s somehow already Week 11, and the Lions are actually right where the team's principal owner Shelia Ford Hamp, at the minimum, expected the Lions to be -- in the playoff hunt. 

Yes, the Lions are on the outside looking in, at this point. But, they are still technically contending for a playoff spot. 

The next two games are winnable, and are probably of the must-win variety, if they are indeed to somehow sneak into the postseason.

This week’s mailbag is filled with prediction-type questions, so here it goes.

1.) Is there any realistic scenario where Matt Patricia doesn’t get fired? -- @brothadebster

Answer: Unfortunately, yes. I'm at the mindset, with this regime, where I have next-to-zero faith it will ever work, if major philosophical changes aren't made. Patricia is too stubborn with his viewpoints to ever change, despite the defense getting seemingly worse and worse under his guidance. 

Do I want the Lions to succeed and prove me wrong? Of course, I do. But, I find it highly unlikely. 

As I mentioned in the intro, Ford Hamp wanted the Lions to be in playoff contention toward the end of the year. If that’s her only mandate for this staff, it’s a real possibility Patricia could have the Lions in that position. 

In a COVID world with an atypical offseason, I could totally see Quinn and Patricia taking a sales pitch approach as to why they deserve another year. It just depends on if Hamp falls for it or not. 

To me, I think it’s pretty easy to see that Patricia’s three years in Detroit have been a failure. Showing improvement or not, it’s still not an upgrade over what the previous head coach was fired for.

2.) What do you think is realistic for expectations for Swift? He’s looked good when called upon as the RB1. Could he finally be a guy that is our lead back for years to come and a top-10 back in the league? -- @Homestylemelt

A: Obviously, Swift will not play this week against the Carolina Panthers due to a concussion. However, I do like the question regarding his long-term outlook. 

The rookie is the modern NFL running back. He is a guy that can win in every phase of the game. Maybe he isn’t elite when it comes to moving the pile, but he is electric in space and that’s what the game is all about in today’s NFL. 

When it comes to him being a top-10 back, the skill is definitely there. In saying that, he has to remain healthy. Swift has decent size, yet he has never truly been a workhorse. It’s difficult to receive that “top back” label, if he can’t stay healthy enough to receive a high volume of touches.

3.) Talk to me about the Romeo Okwara situation. -- @nXOlan

A: Okwara is having himself a stellar season in a contract year. It’s been by far his most productive showing in the NFL. 

He is almost at his 2018 sack and total pressure totals -- he had 7.5 sacks and 39 total pressures in '18 -- with just over half of the pass-rush snaps played in 2020. If he continues to get to the quarterback, someone is going to pay him, and it likely won’t be the Lions. 

They already have down defensive end Trey Flowers on the books, and it would be difficult to give another big contract to essentially a backup. Maybe a “backup” is a bit of a misnomer. Okwara still sees roughly 60 percent of the Lions' defensive snaps when Flowers is healthy. He isn’t an elite run defender like fellow end Flowers is, either. 

Overall, make no mistake, Okwara is outplaying his current contract, but he likely isn’t a consistent top-notch pass-rusher. This season is an anomaly so far in his five-year career. 

To muddy the waters even more, if the Lions were to move on from its present coaching staff this offseason, Okwara might be completely out of the picture, with a different scheme likely implemented.

4.) One-on-one and out of 10 routes, Jeff Okudah vs. Justin Jefferson: Who do you got, and what’s the score? And as a follow-up question, if you pick Jefferson, why not him at the No. 3 overall pick, then? We like getting less talent? -- @chenny21

A: This is quite the hypothetical, but I’ll play along. Important to set the baseline, even the best cover corners in the game would lose a few battles one on one. Also, critical to add, I will create this scenario under the impression that the quarterback has to get rid of the ball in three seconds or less -- which for “most” teams, is the average time it takes. 

In saying all of that, I would give Jefferson the slight edge: Six wins for Jefferson and four for Okudah at this stage in their careers.

The reason why Okudah went No. 3 overall is the position value and potential. Wide receivers are really a dime a dozen. 

Every year, there are plenty of rookies who come in and make an immediate impact. Meanwhile, corners are set up to lose with NFL rules -- especially in the Lions' scheme -- and more time is needed for development.

5.) Where do you see the Lions finishing this year? -- @Jdubs_44

A: I’ll stick with my original preseason prediction of seven wins. Honestly, I would be very surprised if they win anything more than that. 

Starting to feel like a broken record, but in general, they are good enough to beat some bad teams and not good enough to beat the good teams. That makes them an average team. 

The offense hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, yet is adept enough to accumulate wins. Unfortunately, the defense is just downright bad, and does the offense no favors more often than not. Combine the two facets of the game, and once again, their combination points toward the direction of painful mediocrity.

More from SI All Lions:

Da'Shawn Hand, Austin Bryant Ruled Out Sunday against Carolina

Podcast: Why Isn't T.J. Hockenson More Productive?

Scouting Romeo Okwara

Adrian Peterson Says D'Andre Swift Should Have Started 'Two or Three Weeks Ago'

Lions' Week 11 Friday Injury Report: Swift, Golladay, Amendola Out

Poll: Can the Lions Count on Kerryon Johnson against Carolina

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