Odds Lions Beat Bears in Week 13

Predicting Lions' odds to beat the Bears in Week 13.

Dec 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) picks up yardage before being tackled by Chicago Bears defensive lineman Montez Sweat (98) and defensive lineman Andrew Billings (97) in the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

The Lions will look to notch their first win on Thanksgiving since 2016 when they take on the Chicago Bears Thursday at Ford Field. 

Detroit, sitting atop the NFC North at 10-1, has won nine in a row for the first time since 1934. Meanwhile, Chicago, sitting in last place in the North at 4-7, has lost five consecutive games.

During this porous stretch for the Bears, the team has struggled mightily to score points. In fact, during their five-game losing streak, they've exceeded 19 points just once. It came in Chicago's 30-27 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings this past Sunday.

The Bears have averaged a measly 14.6 points per game during this stretch of games. And, after a three-point output against the New England Patriots in Week 10, the organization decided to part ways with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

To add insult to injury, Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, has also experienced his fair share of struggles. 

In fact, from Weeks 8-11, Williams threw exactly zero touchdowns, completed just 56.35 percent of his passes and was sacked 21 times. For the season, the first-year passer has produced a QBR of just 48.9, the eighth-lowest mark among 33 qualified QBs.

Williams and Chicago's offense are expected to have a tough day on Thursday against the Lions’ defense, which has allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL through 12 weeks (16.6 points/game). 

The only saving grace for Williams & Co. is that Detroit could be without starting cornerback Carlton Davis for this Week 13 matchup. Davis, who exited the Lions’ win over the Colts Sunday prematurely, is dealing with knee and thumb injuries. 

If Davis is unable to go, it would likely lead to increased reps for reserves Kindle Vildor and Khalil Dorsey against the Bears. Vildor had a very rough day against Anthony Richardson and Indianapolis, recording a Detroit-worst 28.0 Pro Football Focus overall grade.

Additionally, the Lions will definitely be without receiver/punt returner Kalif Raymond (foot) for the contest. Plus, they could also be missing starting left tackle Taylor Decker (knee) for the divisional clash. 

Yet, I still believe Dan Campbell's squad will handle Chicago relatively easily Thursday. At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions an 84 percent chance to capture the Week 13 victory.