Odds Lions Beat Chicago Bears in Week 4

What are the odds the Detroit Lions have to beat the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field? SI All Lions explores.

Bears and Lions and Tigers, oh my. Well, maybe not the Tigers. 

It is Week 4, as Detroit travels to Soldier Field in Chicago to take on the Bears. 

This season’s “cardiac kids” are shaping up to be the Lions. Every week it seems they are on the verge of winning or finding a way to lose somehow, someway. 

The Lions seemingly had last week’s game against the Baltimore Ravens in the bag ... until they didn't. 

Detroit kicked what appeared to be the game-winning field goal with a little over 1:00 to play, only to watch the Ravens’ Justin Tucker bounce an NFL-record, 66-yard field goal off the crossbar as time expired, to give the Ravens the 19-17 win. 

Detroit dropped to 0-3, and it is a 2.5-point underdog this week against Chicago, according to SI Sportsbook. 

The Bears are not a whole lot better at 1-2. They are coming off an abysmal 26-6 loss to Cleveland in rookie quarterback Justin Fields' debut as an NFL starter. The highly-touted first-rounder was 6-of-20 for 68 yards through the air, which makes the odds on this game look all the more unpredictable.

Will Chicago cover?

Will Fields start, or will it be Andy Dalton or even Nick Foles at QB for the Bears?

Lions head coach Dan Campbell offered his best guess Wednesday. 

“I think that, certainly, (Justin) Fields is going to play some, but I’m sure it’ll be – if (Andy) Dalton can go, it will be him. And if not, it will be (Bears QB Nick) Foles," Campbell told reporters. "I think there will be a lot of, just knowing the background of Foles, it will be a lot more gun-run type things, RPOs, which are kind of similar things they were trying to do with Fields. I think Dalton brings a little more variety, just on what he’s able to do. But, we’ll be prepared for both.”

It is no secret Chicago head coach Matt Nagy is on the hot seat, and with every loss that seat gets warmer. If there is a game on the schedule, however, where Chicago’s offense could look better, one would guess it could come against Detroit’s 22nd-ranked defense. 

Finally, Detroit linebacker Jamie Collins' lethargic play is gone. However, who will step up in his place? 

© Junfu Han via Imagn Content Services, LLC

© Junfu Han / Detroit Free Press via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Rookie inside LB Derrick Barnes filled in nicely with four tackles against Baltimore. Look for his production and snap counts to increase.

Chicago will test Barnes and fellow inside backer Alex Anzalone with the 20th-ranked rushing attack, led by starter David Montgomery, who is presently fifth in the NFL with 203 rushing yards. This will be a key matchup, because Chicago, via its ground game, wants to take pressure off whoever starts at QB.

From there, that opens up more opportunities for play-action and bootleg plays. 

Dalton and Foles are more traditional pocket passers, while Fields is a true dual-threat QB, capable of beating a defense with both his arm and his legs. And, if he gets in there and gets going, Detroit needs to look out.

“I feel like, if anything, they’re going to try to do a little more of what they did in the second half with him. Look, he (Fields) had some struggles early, but I would say there were signs of life at the end of that tape when you watch him," Campbell said Wednesday. "Some of (those) things where – now, maybe it wasn’t always the right read, but he’s pulling the trigger, he’s not waiting in the pocket, he’s trying to diagnose quicker, they’re getting him out on the perimeter. And so, there were some things to where, okay – they probably gathered some information on things that can help him. Those are the things we’ve got to be ready for." 

Detroit’s safeties are reluctant to begin with, when it comes to providing run support, and they tend to be late getting over to help in coverage. If the Bears can get the ground game going, it could be a long day for Detroit. 

It is a lot to ask of Detroit’s cornerbacks in Amani Oruwariye and Bobby Price to hold down the fort though the air, while additionally coming off coverages to double as safeties in run support.

It is going to be very interesting to see how Detroit responds to its heartbreaking loss to Baltimore. Detroit’s defense turned in a strong enough performance last week to keep the Lions in the game. Will this previous discouragement inspire them, or will they begin to mail it in once again? 

If it is the latter, the Bears' offense could get rolling in front of the home crowd.

© Junfu Han via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Detroit QB Jared Goff switched it up, and found a new favorite receiver last week in Kalif Raymond. Raymond was targeted 10 times, and finished with six receptions for 68 yards. 

Goff also still has his regular arsenal of weapons in tight end T.J. Hockenson and running backs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.

Detroit desperately needs a receiver to consistently step up, so this will be a pivotal week for Raymond to prove that he is more than just a one-week, one-hit wonder.

Looming in Chicago’s secondary, however, is Pro Football Focus' highest-rated corner in Jaylon Johnson, who has allowed only one catch so far this season.

Another key matchup will be Bears outside LB Khalil Mack vs. Lions left tackle Penei Sewell. 

On the season, Mack is in the top 10 in the NFL in sacks, with three. Look for Mack to provide Sewell with one of his stiffest challenges yet, and look for him to heavily challenge Sewell’s foot speed and ability to adjust in space.

The more I write, the more I like Chicago to cover.

Chicago will win this one by seven-10 points, as Nagy’s chair begins to cool off. Look for that heat, however, to be transferred to Campbell's seat, as his team falls to 0-4.