Odds Lions Beat Bills in Week 15

Predicting Lions' odds to beat the Bills Sunday.

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) and running back David Montgomery (5) celebrate 34-31 win over Green Bay Packers as he exits the field at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On Sunday, the Lions will battle with Josh Allen and the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (10-3) in a potential Super Bowl preview. 

Just like the Lions, the Bills have yet to win a Super Bowl. However, in stark contrast to Detroit, Buffalo has made four Super Bowl appearances (four straight from 1991-94). In case you forgot, the Lions have yet to make a trip to the league's championship game. 

These current Bills, winners of seven of their last eight games, have been one of the best teams in the NFL all season long. They handed the two-time reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs their only loss of the season in Week 11. Plus, they rank in the top 10 in both total points scored and total points allowed.

In fact, the offense, spearheaded by Allen under center, is averaging the second-most points per game (30.5). And, the team's defense, led by the likes of EDGE rushers Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa and linebacker Dorian Williams, has permitted the eighth-fewest points per contest (20.6).

Subsequently, the Lions won't have it easy on either offense or defense in this Week 15 heavyweight matchup. And to many fans and pundits alike, the highly-anticipated contest gives off the feel of a playoff game. 

Detroit head coach Dan Campbell echoed a similar sentiment this week about the must-see clash.

“If you got teams fighting for the playoffs and stuff like that, it's more like a playoff game I would say," Campbell told reporters. "I feel like you are going to get the best play calls on both sides, you are going to get guys going 100 miles per hour. But, I would just say it's more like a playoff atmosphere.

“I feel like a little bit less generic play-calling on my end and how I see stuff. So, it's going to be a challenge.”

Additionally, it'll be a challenge trying to limit the production of Allen, a two-time Pro Bowler who is playing at an MVP level this season. Through 13 games, the 28-year-old has thrown for 3,033 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Plus, he's produced a league-best QBR (76.7).

In addition, the dual-threat passer has contributed another 416 yards and nine touchdowns with his legs.

It will be pivotal for the Lions’ pass-rushing unit, led by EDGE Za'Darius Smith, to get after Allen early and often on Sunday. And, it will be equally important for Aaron Glenn's defense to keep contain of the do-it-all passer and prevent him from escaping the pocket for big gains. 

Yet, the most efficient way for Detroit to curtail Allen’s productivity still might be through establishing its ground game. With a strong run game Sunday, the Lions will be able to limit the amount of time spent on the field by Allen and the Bills’ potent offense. This, to me, is the best way of preventing Buffalo’s uber-talented signal-caller from exploding for a monstrous game in this Week 15 tilt. 

I believe that Detroit's backfield tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will be able to have a productive game against the Bills, too. Through 13 games, Buffalo has allowed the league's 14th-most rushing yards (1,600).

At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions a 54 percent chance to pull out the Week 15 victory.