Odds Lions Beat Broncos in Week 15

Will the Lions get back on track in Week 15 against Denver?

On Saturday night against the Denver Broncos, the Lions will play in front of a national TV audience for the fifth time this season. Thus far, Detroit is 3-1 in such games, having lost on Thanksgiving to the Green Bay Packers. 

Going into this Week 15 matchup Saturday at Ford Field, the Broncos and the Lions, as of late, have been headed into two completely different directions. 

The Sean Payton-led Broncos, after starting the 2023 campaign with a 1-5 mark, have won six of their last seven games, and are coming off a convincing, 24-7, defeat of the L.A. Chargers.

Additionally, after allowing a near-NFL record 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, Payton's defense has allowed more than 30 points only once in a single game (31 points in Week 5 to the N.Y. Jets).

Additionally, from Week 4 on, Denver has allowed just 18.7 points a game, as part of its unforeseen defensive turnaround.

In that same time span, the Broncos have also excelled at forcing turnovers. Since Week 4, they've caused a total of 23 takeaways. And, on the season, they've forced 24 such mistakes from opponents, which ranks No. 1 in the league. 

Meanwhile, Detroit has struggled at generating takeaways for most of the season, especially since their Week 9 bye. From Week 10 on, Dan Campbell's team has caused just four turnovers. Additionally, on the season, the Lions have forced only 14 turnovers, the seventh-lowest mark in the NFL. 

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Over the last four weeks (a span of games in which Detroit has gone just 2-2), the Lions have also struggled with protecting Jared Goff. Detroit's offensive line, in fact, has permitted 10 sacks since the team's first meeting of the season against the Chicago Bears in Week 11.

Lions center Frank Ragnow, who sat out the team’s Week 14 loss to the Bears, understands that he and his offensive linemen counterparts need to clean up their play headed into the final stretch of the regular season.

“We know, as a group, we take a lot of pride in ourselves,” Ragnow told reporters Wednesday. “We understand that this team kind of goes as we go. So, if we’re not going well, it’s probably more than likely not going to be a good day, and we take a lot of pride in that. And, we know we’ve got to right the ship.” 

On the opposite side of the line, the Lions have also experienced their fair share of struggles in getting after the quarterback. Detroit has amassed just 28 sacks so far this season – and 2.2 per game – which ranks toward the bottom half of the league. 

Additionally, Aidan Hutchinson (6.5 sacks) and Alim McNeill (five sacks), who is now on injured reserve, are the only Lions defenders with at least five sacks on the season. 

Hutchinson & Co. are now set to go up against Broncos veteran passer Russell Wilson, who is experiencing a career resurgence in his second season in Denver. 

After completing a career-worst 60.5 percent of his passes and throwing for a career-low 16 touchdowns in 2022, the nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback has completed 67.2 of his passes and thrown for 23 touchdowns in 13 games in 2023.   

Although he’s now 35 years old, Wilson still also possesses the ability to get out of the pocket and make a play with his legs.  

With Payton leading the way, Wilson’s been given more chances to run in his second campaign with the Broncos. He’s rushed 69 times for 315 yards and two scores, and has run for 31 first downs so far this season, too. 

Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn understands that the Super Bowl-winning quarterback, in his 12th NFL season, is still a threat to make a play with his legs. 

“I think he's playing confident," Glenn said of Wilson Wednesday. "I think what the coaching staff has done with him, is build a system that he's comfortable (in) and allowing him to use his legs still, allowing him to throw the deep ball, which he's always been really, really good at. So, that's something that we have to be very aware of in the secondary.”

Even with this game being at home for the Lions, the Broncos, with Wilson under center and a much improved defense, will be a formidable opponent.

At this present juncture, I'll give Detroit a 60 percent chance to get back on track and secure the Week 15 win.