Odds Lions Beat Colts in Week 12

Predicting Lions' odds to beat the Colts in Week 12.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Mason Rudolph (11) tries to avoid being sacked by Detroit Lions linebacker Jack Campbell (46) during the first half of the NFL game at Ford Field in Detroit on Oct. 27, 2024. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Lions will look to notch their 10th win of the season on Sunday against Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts (5-6). 

The Colts, which sit in second place in the AFC South, have very much had an up-and-down season. They knocked off Aaron Rodgers and the N.Y. Jets last week, 28-27, but prior to that, had lost three straight games. 

In one of those three aforementioned losses (Week 8 against Houston), Richardson – now in his second NFL season – pulled himself out of the game due to being “out of breath.” The 2023 No. 4 overall pick proceeded to be benched the following two weeks in favor of veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. Richardson was re-installed as the starter under center in Week 11 against the Jets.

Through seven games in 2024, the former Florida Gators passer has been very mediocre. He's thrown for more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five), and has completed just 48.5 percent of his passes. And, for his efforts, he's earned a 45.9 QBR, which ranks fifth-lowest among qualified passers this season.

While that is the case, Richardson has proven to be proficient as a runner. He's compiled 274 yards on 51 rushing attempts, good for an average of 5.4 yards per carry. Plus, he's coming off a performance against the Jets in which he rushed for two scores.

Lions head man Dan Campbell will be tasked with getting his defense ready for Richardson's dual-threat ability without the services of veteran linebacker Alex Anzalone.

Anzalone, who's worn the green dot and handled the duties of calling out the plays on defense since joining Detroit in 2021, suffered a broken forearm last week against the Jaguars. Subsequently, he’s expected to be sidelined the next six-eight weeks.

In the meantime, second-year linebacker Jack Campbell is expected to take on the green dot duties, and third-year LB Malcolm Rodriguez is also likely to inherit increased responsibilities.

“(Colts QB Anthony) Richardson’s a running quarterback, and they’re using him a lot more in that regard,” Dan Campbell told reporters earlier this week. “And so, do you want to go nickel? Do you want to go base? Do we need three linebackers? We have to answer all of these things. I know this, Jack and Rodrigo are going to play a lot for us, and then it’s a matter of is it by committee, if you’re using three linebackers? Are we using a DB (defensive back)? It’s just hard to say right now.”

As a whole, Indianapolis has been a very average team in 2024. Led by second-year head coach Shane Steichen, the Colts have both averaged the 19th-most points per game (21.5) and have allowed the 19th-most points per game (22.7). It has equated to an expected win-loss record of 5.1-5.9, basically the same mark as their actual record.

I'm expecting a solid all-around effort from Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense, as well as defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn's unit, on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. At this present juncture, I'll give Detroit a 68 percent chance of capturing the Week 12 victory.