Odds Lions Beat Cowboys in Week 6

Predicting Lions' odds to beat Cowboys in Week 6.

Lions running back David Montgomery runs against Cowboys during the first half at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

On Sunday, the Lions will battle the Dallas Cowboys in a highly-anticipated rematch of last season's Week 17 clash between the two teams.

The late-season loss for Detroit ended in controversy, with an illegal-touching penalty against left tackle Taylor Decker negating a successful two-point conversion attempt in the waning seconds of the contest. The officiating miscue played a deciding factor in the eventual 20-19 loss for Dan Campbell's squad.

That loss marked the Lions’ sixth straight defeat to the Cowboys, a streak that extends to the teams’ 2014 season wild-card playoff contest with one another (a 24-20 win for the Cowboys).

Fast-forward to the 2024 season, and both teams are off to respectable starts. The Lions, coming off their bye week, sit at 3-1 and in second place in the NFC North division. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, coming off a Week 5 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, sit at 3-2 and in second place in the NFC East division.

Going into this Week 6 matchup, Dallas – which had won all 16 of its regular season contests at AT&T Stadium from 2022-2023 – is looking for its first home win of the season. Mike McCarthy's team has dropped home tilts with the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Ravens thus far in 2024.

Key to the Cowboys’ chances of capturing their first home win of the year will be the health of several key players. 

Most notably, All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 4 against the N.Y. Giants, did not suit up against the Steelers and failed to practice Wednesday. Meanwhile, All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland, who has failed to play a single snap this season due to offseason foot surgery, has been designated to return from injured reserve and could play a limited role Sunday vs. Detroit. 

The Cowboys are expecting DaRon Bland back this week, even in a limited role. https://t.co/9a3s635fTQ

— Nick Eatman (@nickeatman) October 8, 2024

Those two defensive playmakers could significantly alter the Cowboys’ odds of pulling off the Week 6 victory.

As for Detroit, it had two of its top players return to practice on Wednesday: defensive back Brian Branch (illness) and center Frank Ragnow (torn pectoral muscle). Branch and Ragnow each missed the Lions’ Week 4 contest with the Seattle Seahawks.

Ragnow, the owner of an 82.2 Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade, will certainly aid Detroit in its efforts to run the football Sunday. Spearheaded by the backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the Lions have rushed for the sixth-most yards (605) and the third-most touchdowns (seven) in the NFL thus far this season. They'll be squaring off with a Dallas defense that has allowed the ninth-most yards on the ground (675) and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (eight) in 2024. 

Subsequently, I believe that Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will place a major emphasis on “pounding the rock” in this Week 6 matchup. And doing so should pay huge dividends for Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense as a whole Sunday.

On the opposite side of the field, I expect EDGE Aidan Hutchinson to play a difference-making role and to wreak havoc against Cowboys signal-caller Dak Prescott. I think he'll get in Prescott's face early and often, and affect his timing and accuracy throughout the course of the game.

With all this said, I believe that Hutchinson and the Lions – with revenge on their minds – have a 55 percent chance of securing the road win Sunday.