Odds Lions Beat Jaguars in Week 11

Predicting Lions' odds to beat the Jaguars in Week 11.

Aug 19, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson meets Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell on the field after their game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images / David Reginek-Imagn Images

The Lions will do battle with the AFC South cellar-dwelling Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) on Sunday at Ford Field. 

Detroit, which owns the NFC's best record at 8-1, will look to extend its franchise-best winning streak to eight games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, which are tied with the N.Y. Giants for the worst record in the NFL this season, will look to avoid suffering their second four-game losing streak of the 2024 campaign.

That will certainly be easier said than done for Jacksonville, which will be without its franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence for the Week 11 affair. 

Lawrence, who injured his shoulder in the Jaguars’ Week 9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, will miss his second consecutive game. Mac Jones, the former first-round pick of the New England Patriots, will start in Lawrence's place for the second straight week. Jones threw for just 111 yards, and tossed two interceptions in the Jaguars’ lifeless loss to the Minnesota Vikings a week ago. Additionally, in parts of three games this year, he's thrown for zero touchdowns, and has produced a measly QBR of 11.4. 

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Jacksonville, as a whole, has struggled to score points all year long (20.2/game; 21st in the NFL), and has consistently encountered issues stopping opponents (26.4 points allowed/game; 27th in the NFL). Along with that, the Jaguars have permitted the most yards in the NFL through 10 weeks (3,906), and have allowed the second-most first downs (224). In addition, they've been outscored by their opponents, 264-202.

To no surprise, the Lions, per SI Sportsbook, are 13.5-point favorites headed into their matchup with Jacksonville – good for the biggest point spread of the week.

Additionally, I'd be remiss not to mention that EDGE rusher Za'Darius Smith will be suiting up as a member of the Lions for the first time on Sunday. Smith, who was acquired at the NFL's Nov. 5 trade deadline from the Browns, recorded five sacks and 27 total pressures in nine games with Cleveland this season. He's expected to provide a major boost to Detroit's pass-rushing department.

“He’s a veteran guy, he’s been around it and he’s wholly embraced the eight wins, ‘Hey, we got eight.’” Lions head man Dan Campbell said of Smith earlier this week. “Look, it’s one of the reasons he’s been a good player. It’s not just the physical ability he’s got; he’s been around it, he’s seen it, he’s pretty instinctive, he understands the game. And so, those little things that come up, you never know how that’s going to hit with one of our players in real time.

“So, man, those are good. Look, he’s – I know he just got here, but he’s in. He’s in it, and he’s ready to go. I know he was chomping at the bit to play (against Houston), and he’s about to play. So, he’s going to be ready to roll.”

At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions an 88 percent chance – the highest odds I've ever given Detroit to win a single game – to pull off the Week 11 victory.

Game odds refresh periodically, and are subject to change.

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