Odds Lions Beat Packers in Week 12
The Detroit Lions will try to match their win total from a season ago on Thursday against the Green Bay Packers.
The Lions, winners of eight of their first 10 games for the first time since 1962, will also look to extend their win streak to five games against the Packers. If Detroit is able to pull off the win in its annual Thanksgiving Day contest at home, it will mark the team's eighth win in a row against an NFC North divisional foe.
Dan Campbell's squad is already 1-0 on the season against Green Bay. It beat Jordan Love and the Packers in Week 4 at Lambeau Field, 34-20.
Since then, the Lions have gone 5-1. Meanwhile, Green Bay has gone just 2-4 since, although it did defeat the L.A. Chargers in Week 11, 23-20.
The Packers, led by Love under center, have been in the bottom-half of the league offensively for most of the year. Through their first 10 games, they've averaged just 20.2 points a contest (the 13th-fewest points in the NFL).
Love, himself, has been a middle-of-the road quarterback at best in his first season as an NFL starting passer. He's completed just 59.7 percent of his passes, has thrown the second-most interceptions in the league (10) and has produced a QBR of just 47.3 (22nd among qualified passers).
On defense, Matt LaFleur's squad has fared much better. It's allowed 20.2 points per game, the 10th-best mark through the first 11 weeks of the season.
However, once you look at the team's rush defense stats, you'll realize that Green Bay's defense isn't as great as it seems. In fact, the Packers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (1,347) and the ninth-most rushing yards per attempt (4.3) on the season.
It should bode well for a Lions team that has recorded the fifth-most rushing yards (1,366), and is averaging the fifth-most yards per carry (4.6) in the NFL through its first 10 games.
Remember, Detroit's backfield tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs has also combined for north of 100 rushing yards the last two weeks – 193 in Week 10 against the Chargers and 112 in Week 11 against the Bears.
To me, it screams that the Montgomery-Gibbs duo is in store for another 100-plus-yard day on the ground Thursday.
And, in front of what will be a raucous, sold-out crowd at Ford Field, I'll give the Lions a 75 percent chance to sweep the season series against the Packers.
