Odds Lions Beat Packers in Week 18

Read more on the odds of the Detroit Lions beating the Green Bay Packers in Week 18.

The Lions (8-8) travel to Lambeau Field this week for a must-see matchup with the Green Bay Packers (8-8) on Sunday Night Football.

If the L.A. Rams upset the Seattle Seahawks earlier in the day Sunday, the aforementioned regular season finale between the Lions and the Packers becomes a play-in game to the playoffs for Detroit. 

Meanwhile, Green Bay simply has to defeat the Lions to clinch a spot in the postseason. 

The Lions and the Packers have been two of the hottest teams in all the NFL as of late. Dan Campbell's team has won seven of its last nine games, while Aaron Rodgers & Co. have won four in a row and five of their last seven.

In the first meeting between these two NFC North teams this season (in Week 9), Detroit picked off Rodgers three times, en route to defeating Green Bay, 15-9, at Ford Field.

It'll be almost impossible to force the future Pro Football Hall of Famer to play such poorly once again. 

Rodgers has played some of his best football over the years against the Lions. In 25 career games vs. Detroit, he owns an 18-7 record, and has amassed 6,346 passing yards, 53 passing touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. He's also produced an impressive passer rating of 105.8.

While all this is true, these aren't the same Lions that Rodgers has consistently beaten -- and dominated -- throughout the entirety of his NFL career.  

One of the major reasons why is the emergence of the rookie pass-rushing duo of Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston. 

Hutchinson, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft, and Houston, a sixth-rounder and the No. 217 overall selection this past April, are the first pair of rookie teammates both with seven-or-more sacks since 1982.

Houston paces all Detroit defenders this season with eight sacks. It's come in just six games for the former practice squad member, which is the most sacks by a player in that few games in league history.

© Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Meanwhile, Hutchinson has produced seven-and-a-half sacks himself, and also has come up with three interceptions (one of which came against Rodgers in Week 9).

Then, there's fellow rookie EDGE Josh Paschal, a second-round pick of the Lions (No. 46 overall), who recorded the first two sacks of his NFL career a week ago against the Chicago Bears.

It gives Detroit's 2022 rookie class 18.5 total sacks on the season, which is one shy of the league record set by the Tennessee Titans in 1999.

“It’s crazy. Someone had told me that a couple days ago. And, that’s a wild stat to think about," Hutchinson told reporters Thursday. "I don’t really think we’re competing with each other. I think everyone is getting after it. Everyone is eating. That’s what you want. Now we got Josh Paschal coming along, too, which was huge. I was so happy for him getting those two. I really think, just setting up for next year, it’s all coming together at the right time.

“It’s crazy. Oh, it’s crazy when you see it. Obviously, he (Houston) had three last week. He just finds a way to get to the ball, and he takes advantage of his opportunities, which is what you want in a pass rusher. He’s getting after it, and I think we got a pretty nasty pass rush right now.”

As much as the Lions will want to get after Rodgers Sunday, it'll be even more important for Campbell & Co. to do two other things: to establish the run and limit the production of the Packers' run game.

Both Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift had big days on the ground against Chicago last week. Williams accumulated 144 yards and a touchdown (on 22 carries), while Swift amassed 78 yards and a score (on 11 rushing attempts).

They have a chance to do some damage against Green Bay, which has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards (2,268 yards) in 2022. 

Meanwhile, the Packers, led by their running back duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, have accumulated 2,010 rushing yards (the 13th-highest total in the league this season).

There's a strong chance that Jones and Dillon give the Lions fits all night. Remember, Aaron Glenn's defense has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards since the start of the campaign (2,388). 

With all the aforementioned factors added up, I'm willing to give Detroit a 42 percent chance to close out the 2022 season with a win.