Odds Lions Beat Packers in Week 14

Predicting Lions' odds to beat the Packers Thursday night.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff looks to pass to wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown during the second half against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. on Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Lions will square off with the Green Bay Packers Thursday night at Ford Field, in pursuit of a sweep of the season series against their NFC North rivals. 

If they do just that, they'll improve to 4-0 on the season against their divisional opponents. With a win, Dan Campbell's team will also extend its franchise-best winning streak to 11 games.

It'll be easier said than done against the Jordan Love-led Packers, which have won three straight games since losing to Detroit at Lambeau Field in Week 9. And during the three-game winning streak, Green Bay has allowed no more than 19 points in a single game.

It's a commendable feat for Matt LaFleur's team, which is averaging the eighth-most points per game (26.5/game) and allowing the ninth-fewest points per contest (20.0/game). Without a doubt, Green Bay – which is 4-1 on the road in 2024 – is capable of avenging its early-season loss to Campbell's squad.

In the aforementioned Week 9 clash with Detroit, the Packers out-rushed (138 to 124 yards) and threw for more yards (273 to 145) than Jared Goff & Co. Additionally, Green Bay accumulated more first downs than Detroit (20 to 17). 

However, Love & Co. shot themselves in the foot with multiple self-inflicted wounds. Love threw a costly interception late in the first half that was returned for a touchdown by Lions safety Kerby Joseph. Plus, the Packers committed 10 penalties, costing themselves 67 yards.

Since that loss, Love has thrown just one other interception, and the Packers have played a cleaner, more efficient brand of football. 

More: Kwon Alexander Ready to 'Go to War' for Dan Campbell, Aaron Glenn

For instance, they've become a much more productive red-zone offense since the defeat at the hands of Detroit. Green Bay went just one-for-four at scoring touchdowns inside the 20 against Aaron Glenn's Lions defense, and left the divisional matchup with a 47.1 percent success rate for the season inside the red zone. In stark contrast, the Packers have scored touchdowns on 73.3 percent of their red-zone trips in their last three games.

To Green Bay defensive tackle Kenny Clark, the Packers are “a different team” than they were when they first played the Lions.

“We're playing better together, taking away the ball. Like we've been talking about, just coming together as a team and playing complementary football and eliminating mistakes,” Clark told ESPN and Packers reporters. “Still got to slow down with the penalties and all that stuff, as far as shooting ourselves in the foot and all the ticky-tack stuff. I think we're getting away from that, and just coming together as a team.”

Green Bay might be playing Detroit at just the perfect time, too. Since their first matchup with the Packers, the Lions have lost a myriad of players to injury, including linebackers Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez and defensive linemen Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike and Mekhi Wingo.

As a result of all the injuries, I could see Green Bay deploying its fourth-ranked run game (1,782 yards) early and often. Josh Jacobs leads the way for the Packers’ ground game, with 987 rushing yards, eight touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry. In addition, he's coming off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he amassed 117 all-purpose yards and one rushing score. Also, he rushed for 95 yards in Green Bay's last time out against Detroit. 

Subsequently, I believe the Lions’ run defense, which has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL (1,122), will be tested in this Week 14 primetime tilt.

Presently, I believe Detroit has a 55 percent chance of defending home field and pulling off the divisional win against Green Bay.