Odds Lions Beat Patriots in Week 5

Read more on the Detroit Lions' odds of beating the New England Patriots in Week 5.

The Detroit Lions failed to produce a solid stop all game long a week ago against the Seattle Seahawks. 

The Seahawks went on to score 48 points in their win over the Lions, and didn't punt a single time in the contest.

Aaron Glenn's defense failed to record a single sack against Seattle signal-caller Geno Smith, did very little tackling of Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny and got thrashed consistently by DK Metcalf, Seattle's star wide receiver.

Speaking of Metcalf, he burned third-year Detroit cornerback Jeff Okudah all game long. Metcalf totaled 149 yards on seven receptions, en route to recording a Pro Football Focus grade of 80.7. 

As for Okudah, he allowed 124 yards in coverage to Seattle's pass-catchers in Week 4, after allowing a combined 106 yards through the first three weeks of the season. 

It was, by far, Okudah's worst performance of the 2022 campaign, and it led to him posting a 54.2 coverage grade for the week, per PFF. 

Jeff Okudah yards allowed by week:

Week 1 -- 32
Week 2 -- 31
Week 3 -- 43
Week 4 -- 124

He had a 54.2 coverage grade on Sunday vs. the Seahawks per @PFF.

DK Metcalf's grade? 80.7.

— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) October 3, 2022

Now, Okudah and his teammates will look to bounce back Sunday in a contest with the 1-3 New England Patriots, which are averaging just 18.5 points per game.

“I think everyone has bounce-back on their minds right now," the former Ohio State defensive back told reporters earlier this week. "Just get out there, it’s a chance to right the ship. That’s what we’re looking at it as, an opportunity to right the ship.” 

The Patriots are much more of a ground-and-pound team than a passing one. They rank just 25th in pass attempts (118). Meanwhile, they've recorded the ninth-most rushing attempts through the first four weeks of the season.

Expect the trend to continue with third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe, a rookie out of Western Kentucky, projected to start under center Sunday.

With that said, Okudah is expecting the Week 5 tilt to be physical.

"Smash-mouth football," he said, when talking about what jumps out about the Patriots' offense. "Kind of the stuff of the Patriots that I grew up watching. They’re gonna play a physical game. So, you’ve gotta bring your hard hat, (and be) ready to go.”

© Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

New England has accumulated the 10th-most rushing yards (514) and the fifth-most rushing scores (five) thus far this season. 

And, 25-year-old Damien Harris leads the way for the Patriots' backs, with 246 yards and three touchdowns (on 53 carries). Meanwhile, third-year running back Rhamondre Stevenson isn't too far behind Harris from a statistical standpoint. Stevenson has produced 211 yards and a score (on 43 carries). 

As a whole, New England's backfield has rushed for 4.5 yards an attempt, the 13th-best mark among all 32 NFL franchises.

This should pose a big-time challenge for Detroit's defense, which has allowed the third-most yards on the ground through four weeks (662). Additionally, it's allowed the most rushing touchdowns (10), and has permitted the most rushing yards per attempt (5.6). 

Fourth-year EDGE Austin Bryant understands the difficulty that lies ahead for the Lions in attempting to stop the Patriots' backs. 

"Oh, man, they have a great running back corps, all of them guys are super talented," Bryant commented. "They run super hard, it’s gonna be fun. It’s gonna be a lock-the-gate type of game, and I think we’ve got the guys that love that type of atmosphere, that type of game. I know I am personally. So, man, I cannot wait to compete against them. I know they’ll be ready, (and) we’ll be ready, too.”

On Sunday, Bryant and his teammates will be going up against former Lions head coach Matt Patricia, who now calls offensive plays for New England.

Patricia, who went a dismal 13-29-1 in three seasons as Lions head man, was responsible for drafting Bryant and several other present Detroit players. 

Bryant, for one, has no hard feelings toward his former coach.

"When he left here, wished him all the luck," Bryant expressed. "Seems he’s been doing good things over there in New England, since he left. It’ll be good to see him. He drafted me, changed my life. I’ll be grateful for him, grateful that I’m in this league. It’ll be good to see him, but at the end of the day, we’re competing on Sunday.” 

Despite the bad reputation regarding Patricia and how he dealt with his players inside the locker room in Detroit, Bryant contends that he and his teammates got along with him and respected him.

“I thought he was a good coach, his players loved him," Bryant said. "I know that he had a great relationship with his guys, but it’s just hard trying to do everything by yourself. Time ran out, as time can run out on anybody in this building. It was just time for a change, and that’s above my pay grade. But, ownership saw fit, and made a change. Here we are.”

Okudah remembers Patricia -- also his former head coach and the guy that drafted him No. 3 overall in 2020 -- placing a heavy emphasis on the "fundamentals" of the game.

"In my experience, he’s a coach that preaches discipline, fundamentals and football. (He was) real big on the X’s and O’s in the game," Okudah shared about Patricia.

It's time for Okudah and his defensive counterparts to get back to the "basics" as a unit. And, if they don't improve their run-stopping efforts, it's likely going to be a long day for Glenn's defense.

Despite all of that being said, I'll still give Detroit a 40 percent chance at beating Patricia & Co. in this Week 5 contest.