Odds Lions Beat NFC North-Leading Vikings

Read more on the Detroit Lions' odds of beating the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 at Ford Field.

The Detroit Lions (5-7) are 2.5-point favorites going into their Week 14 divisional matchup with the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) Sunday.

It marks the first time in NFL history, in the modern era of the game, that a 10-2 team is an underdog to a 5-7 squad.

Both of the NFC North teams are winners of four of their last five games. 

Additionally, in the first contest between the two teams this season (in Week 3), the Lions squandered a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead, and allowed Minnesota to come from behind to win, 28-24.

The loss still eats at Detroit head coach Dan Campbell.

"It burns me. Of course, it burns me,” Campbell told reporters earlier this week. “That’ll be there until the day I die. That’s not gonna go away. It does, but I also know I can’t wallow in that and let that pull me down. It is what it is, and it happened for a reason. And honestly, I think us losing five in a row is why we’re at where we’re at right now. That’s kind of how I look at it, maybe we needed this to happen to get to where we’re at right now.”

If the Lions intend on pulling off the divisional win, it would behoove Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to get the passing game going early and often.

Going into Sunday, the Vikings rank dead last in yards allowed to opposing passers (3,403).

And luckily for Johnson, Detroit signal-caller Jared Goff and his top two receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark, are currently playing some of their best football of the season.  

Goff completed 31-of-40 passes in the Lions' win vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars a week ago, his most completions since his first game with Detroit. In addition, he also threw for 340 yards in the contest, his second-highest total since joining the Lions (his highest total, 378 yards, came in Week 4 against the Seattle Seahawks).

Meanwhile, St. Brown is coming off his fourth 100-plus-yard receiving game of the campaign (114 yards), and Chark is coming off a season-best performance of five catches and 98 yards.

Johnson believes St. Brown has a "unique" skill set.

"To me, it’s hard for defenses to take away a slot receiver. I really do believe that, especially with how much we move him around and try to generate some matchups for him. But, just his skillset, it is unique," Johnson said of St. Brown. "He is well-built. He’s strong, he’s got quickness, he’s as good as anybody we have on the team getting in and out of breaks to create separation at the top of the route. No, it’s awesome, and he’s got elite hands to go on top of it. So, he can make some contested catches, also. So, it’s a fun little toy to play with, as we go into the gameplan session.”

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On the opposite side of the ball, Detroit's biggest focus will be on limiting the productivity of Vikings star running back Dalvin Cook and Minnesota's No. 1 wideout, Justin Jefferson.

Cook rushed 17 times for 96 yards and a score in the first meeting between the two teams, while Jefferson was held to just three catches for 14 yards (on six targets). It was Jefferson's worst performance of the season.

Cook, who rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown last week against the N.Y. Jets, could be in store for another big day Sunday. The reason why: The Lions rank second-to-last in both rushing touchdowns allowed (18) and yards per rushing attempt permitted (5.2) in 2022.

"We came out and established ourselves at the line of scrimmage (last time out against Detroit)," Cook told Vikings reporters earlier this week. "I thought the O-line did a great job -- tight ends, too, of blocking and getting me into space and me just being decisive and hitting holes. ... Looking forward to picking up from that, going in there against a feisty team and physical team and winning the game."

At this juncture, I'm giving the Lions a 51 percent chance of securing the Week 14 win.