Odds Lions Beat Vikings in Week 18

Predicting Lions' odds to beat the Vikings Sunday night.

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) prepares for the snap against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Get your popcorn ready. The Lions and the Vikings – two 14-win teams – will meet on Sunday Night Football to determine the NFC North title and the NFC's No. 1 seed.

The NFL couldn’t have scripted it any better than this for its 2024 regular season finale.

Detroit and Minnesota are both humming going into this Week 18 matchup at Ford Field. Minnesota, which is coming off a 27-25 victory against the Packers in Week 17, has won nine in a row. Meanwhile, the Lions, which are coming off a 40-34 triumph over the 49ers on Monday Night Football, have won two straight contests and 13 of their last 14 games.

In addition, the two teams’ quarterbacks – Sam Darnold for the Vikings and Jared Goff for the Lions – are playing some of the best football of their respective careers. 

For starters, Goff, who has compiled a career-high 36 touchdown passes in 2024, has thrown for 20 touchdowns and just one interception since tossing five interceptions in Week 10 against the Texans. In that same span (covering seven games), the veteran passer has completed 71.7 percent of his passes, and is averaging 331 yards per game. Additionally, he ranks as the NFL's eighth-best signal-caller in QBR (67.1). 

As for Darnold, he's enjoying the definition of a breakthrough campaign. The 2018 No. 3 overall pick has thrown for a career-best 35 touchdowns, and has also notched career-high marks in completion percentage (68.1), passing yards (4,153) and QBR (63.4). Plus, in his last seven games, he's thrown for 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions, while recording a completion percentage of 67.5 percent and 287 yards per game.

Additionally, Goff and Darnold – among NFL passers – rank No. 2 and No. 4, respectively, in passing yards and No. 4 and No. 5, respectively, in passing touchdowns. They have been two of the game's very best signal-callers in 2024, and will undoubtedly pose issues to each other's defenses on Sunday. 

The Lions, for instance, have allowed the second-most passing yards this season (4,006), including 377 yards a week ago to the 49ers’ Brock Purdy. Plus, Aaron Glenn's secondary is down its top cornerback in Carlton Davis. The Vikings, meanwhile, haven't fared much better against the pass. For the season, Brian Flores’ defense has allowed 3,898 yards through the air, the fifth-highest total in the league in 2024.

For Detroit, perhaps even more alarming is the fact that Glenn's unit has allowed at least 382 yards of offense the past three weeks, including a staggering 559 yards to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. 

Fortunately for the Lions, their defense could receive a major boost as soon as this week via the return of veteran linebacker Alex Anzalone. 

Anzalone, who has totaled 56 tackles, including seven for loss, in nine games this season, hasn’t played a single down since breaking his forearm in Week 11. His 21-day practice window opened Wednesday, meaning there's a chance he could return to action for Detroit's season finale with the Vikings.

Regardless of whether Anzalone is active, Detroit will face an uphill battle trying to limit the productivity of a Minnesota offense that ranks ninth in points per game (26.4) and features a 1,000-yard rusher (Aaron Jones) and a 100-catch, 1,400-yard receiver (Justin Jefferson).

At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions a 58 percent chance to close out the 2024 regular season with a victory against Darnold & Co.