Odds Lions Beat Vikings in Week 7

Predicting Lions' odds to beat Vikings in Week 7.

Jan 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) flexes his muscles after scoring a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings during second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images / David Reginek-Imagn Images

On Sunday, the Lions will look to notch their fifth win in six games to open up the 2024 campaign. In order to do so, though, Detroit will need to hand the Minnesota Vikings (5-0) their first loss of the season. 

The Lions have won three straight and four of their last five against the Vikings, including a 30-24 victory over Minnesota on Christmas Eve last season. With that win, Detroit captured its first division crown since 1993 (and its first ever division championship as a member of the NFC North).

Fast-forward to the current season, and the Vikings and the Lions are the top two teams in the division. Minnesota sits atop the NFC North, while Detroit is just a game behind at 4-1.

This Week 7 matchup will feature a battle of strengths, with the Lions’ fourth-ranked run game squaring off with the Vikings’ second-ranked run defense. 

Despite Minnesota possessing a stout unit against the run, I don't envision Detroit shying away from the “ground-and-pound” on Sunday. 

It's become the “bread and butter” of the Ben Johnson-run offense. Plus, the Lions’ backfield tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is easily one of the best in the game today. Just a week ago against the Dallas Cowboys, Montgomery rushed for 80 yards and two scores, while Gibbs ran for another 63 yards.

Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the ball, Detroit will be without star EDGE Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson, who recorded a league-high 7.5 sacks through the Lions’ first five games, suffered a fractured tibia and fibula against the Cowboys. Subsequently, the Michigan product will miss the remainder of the 2024 season. 

Losing Hutchinson, undoubtedly, is a significant blow to Detroit's pass-rushing department. And, it should be extremely beneficial to Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, who has experienced a career resurgence in Minnesota. The seventh-year passer has thrown for 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions, as well as 1,111 yards, through the Vikings’ first five games.

Minnesota offensive coordinator Wes Phillips believes the Lions’ pass-rush, even without Hutchinson, will exert its will on Sunday. 

“Those interior guys are really good players, (Alim) McNeill and (DJ) Reader," Phillips told Vikings reporters. "(Josh) Paschal, who came in after Hutchinson, is a really good player. I was impressed with him last year when he was playing in the game.

"They have very extensive pressure packages, particularly on third downs. (Alex) Anzalone is a very good blitzer, and they'll bring him on early downs and third down. They understand protections and what they are doing. …They are not just throwing things against the wall and seeing if it sticks. It's going to be a good challenge for us.”

It'll be a challenge for Dan Campbell's squad on Sunday, too. But, in the end, I think Detroit will pull off the Week 7 victory.

At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions a 58 percent chance to secure the road win in Minnesota.