5Q: Run Game Could Decide Battle For First Place

Previewing Sunday's Lions-Packers game with Green Bay beat writer.

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5). / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Bill Huber covers the Green Bay Packers for Packers OnSI. He recently answered five questions from Lions OnSI to preview Sunday's game at Lambeau Field between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.

Have there been noticeable differences between the team’s offensive style with Jordan Love versus Malik Willis under center? What challenges might Willis provide for the Lions defense, if he is the starter? 

Bill Huber: Yeah, no question, which I suppose could work to Green Bay’s advantage if there’s some doubt as we get through the practice week.

With Willis, the Packers are a run-first attack. Against the Colts in Week 2, Josh Jacobs carried the ball 32 times. He got the ball 13 times in less than a half on Sunday in Jacksonville after Love exited with a groin injury. It’s the cliched-but-true attack on offense of running the ball to keep the offense in good down-and-distance situations and set up easier passes.

Those easier passes, oftentimes, are bootlegs with Willis. Willis is a superb athlete and he’s thrown the ball with plenty of accuracy, so those plays work to Green Bay’s advantage and put the defense in a pickle. Against the Jaguars, Travon Walker was coming clean for a sack and Willis just froze him before taking off for 20. On the next play, Jacobs broke two tackles and scored a 38-yard touchdown.

With Love, it is the pass-first approach we’ve seen for years with Aaron Rodgers and Love. The run game sets up the pass, just like with Willis, but there’s a lot more dropback to take advantage of Love’s skill and the talent at receiver.

Which of the Packers’ young receivers poses the biggest threat to the Lions’ secondary on Sunday?

Huber: Jayden Reed is perhaps the best player on the offense, and I’d think Reed against Amik Robertson would be a matchup the Packers would want to take advantage of.

Reed is a superb player. He leads the team with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4 average and is third with three touchdowns. He runs the full route tree at receiver and lines up frequently in the backfield for handoffs and screens. He is not the stereotypical thrown-it-short-and-let-him-run slot receiver.

He’s so good that his mere presence occupies defenders. There’s been several snaps in which he’s been part of a two-back tandem in the backfield. Reed flares out for a pass, which sucks the defense his way, only for it to be a handoff to the other back the opposite direction.

He’d be the first to tell you that he’s dropped too many passes, but he’s a threat down the field or after the catch.

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The Packers made several notable offseason additions in free agency. Which of these newcomers has made the biggest impact in 2024?

Huber: Xavier McKinney has six interceptions in eight games. The Packers had seven interceptions all last season. So, to say he’s changed the defense might be the understatement of the century.

It’s not just that he’s picking off passes left and right. He’s played excellent coverage; it’s not as if he’s taking himself out of position and chasing interceptions. He’s a top tackler at the position, as well, and a big-time leader. When McKinney talks, people listen. Those “people” include the two rookie safeties, Javon Bullard and Evan Williams, who play a lot of snaps.

What are 1-2 key matchups that could decide Sunday’s game? 

Huber: Green Bay’s defensive front has run hot and cold. The Packers had eight sacks against Tennessee and spent the afternoon in the face of the Texans’ C.J. Stroud. Other games, the group is MIA. Against the Jaguars, the Packers had only one sack. With ample time to throw it, Trevor Lawrence topped 300 passing yards. Lawrence is a good player but he’s not Jared Goff.

Sticking with the defense, who’s going to stop Amon-Ra St. Brown? Cornerback Jaire Alexander suffered a knee injury on the final defensive snap against the Jaguars. He is a premier player. According to PFF, he’s allowed one catch each of the last three games. He allowed 2 passing yards against the Jaguars; it was carnage everywhere else. I’d assume Alexander will be questionable for Sunday and maybe even a gametime decision.

The Packers have to successfully run the ball with Jacobs. Regardless of whether it’s Willis or the hobbled Love, the Packers can’t afford to live in third-and-8.

Who wins and why?

Huber: I share an office with ESPN’s Rob Demovsky and The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman. Before last year’s rematch at Ford Field, I told Schneidman something to the affect, “These teams could play 100 times and the Lions might win 99.” Or maybe I said 100. 

Whatever the number, the Lions are really good and I don’t know that the Packers are tough enough to hold up against Detroit’s offensive line and power running back.

Well, I was wrong, obviously, which Matt has reminded me of a few times over the last 11 months. The point remains, though. I think Detroit is the better team and they’d win most matchups, and they’d certainly win a high percentage of games with Jordan Love stuck in the pocket because of an injured groin.

I’ll take Detroit to cover the spread … with the caveat of I’d probably be broke if I bet on games.