Should Lions Pick Up LB Jarrad Davis' 5th-Year Option?

Lions have an interesting decision to make on LB Jarrad Davis

Within the next few months, the Detroit Lions will have to make a decision in regards to linebacker Jarrad Davis and whether or not to pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie contract. 

All players selected in the first round automatically have a four-year contract with a team option fifth-year in the deal -- one of the perks of selecting someone in the first round. 

Teams must decide to either decline or exercise the fifth-year option following the player's third season. After Bob Quinn selected Davis in the first round of the 2017 NFL draft, Davis will be going into his fourth season in the league. 

So, is it worth it for the Lions to keep Davis around for that extra year?

LB Jarrad Davis / © Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

In short, there really isn't much downside to at least pick up the option.

Make no mistake, Davis has shown some flashes of greatness but overall has greatly underperformed in both the 4-3 and 3-4 hybrid defense he is currently in under Matt Patricia. Despite a disappointing start to his career, the current regime sure seems to love Davis' leadership and work ethic. 

He has the prototypical character traits that Quinn and Patricia require. Unfortunately, strong off-field qualities don't equal on-field production.

Quinn did, however, draft Jahlani Tavai in the second round of last April's draft. It's not out of the question that the Lions prefer Tavai long-term and want him as the succession plan.

In 2019, Davis was graded by Pro Football Focus as the fifth-lowest of the 99 off-ball linebackers to play at least 20 percent of snaps. He was the 17th lowest in 2018 and 19th lowest in 2017. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Even with this said, the Lions could exercise the fifth-year option and cut him before the start of the 2021 season with no dead cap repercussions. 

The only real caveat with the fifth year option is that it's guaranteed for injury. If Davis was unable to pass his physical at the start of the 2021 season, the contract could not be voided.

If Davis is on the roster at the start of the league year in his option 2021 season, the salary becomes fully guaranteed though.

On to the projected cost for Davis' fifth-year option. There are two different criteria used for determining the fifth-year cost of players selected in the first round: the top-ten selections and all other first-round picks. 

Since Davis was the 21st overall pick, he will fall into the latter category. In order to figure out Davis' potential fifth-year salary, the average of the 3rd to 25th highest prior year salaries for linebackers will be averaged out and used as the set price.

Without getting too deep into the numbers, this would land Davis right in the ballpark of $10-million for his 2021 cap hit. Just for reference, the price to retain a first-round linebacker's fifth-year option was $9.5 million last year. With yearly cap increases, that figure is set to rise -- hence the $10-million estimate.

The amount it will cost to keep Davis under the fifth-year option is not totally unreasonable for a starter with his skill set on the open market. The overall risk is rather small considering it's not a long term contract. Top paid-linebackers like Bobby Wagner and C.J. Mosley make north of $17-million per year. Not that Davis is in that tier, but linebackers aren't a cheap position to replace.

On the off chance that everything clicks for Davis in 2020 and he finally lives up to that first-round hype, the fifth-year option at least secures his services in 2021. 

If he continues his current level of play, the Lions can cut Davis before the start of the 2021 league year and it would leave no dead cap. No harm, no foul.

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