What You Must Know About Lions Playoff Odds, Clinching Scenarios

What to know about Lions' path to NFC top seed, home-field advantage.

Detroit Lions fans cheer. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The NFL season has reached its final two weeks, and the Detroit Lions are firmly in the race for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC.

As it stands, the Lions are in a tie for the top spot in the NFC with an NFC North divisional opponent, the Minnesota Vikings. The two teams are tied atop both the division and the conference with 13-2 records, with Detroit holding the upper hand thanks to a victory in the two teams first meeting.

Detroit and Minnesota will meet again in Week 18, and if the Vikings beat the Packers, that game will decide both the NFC North and who gets the first-round bye and home-field advantage.

The Lions are still the favorite to win both the NFC North and the No. 1 seed. As it stands, the winner of the NFC North will in fact be the No. 1 seed, as the Philadelphia Eagles lost last week to the Washington Commanders to drop to 12-3.

According to the New York Times Playoff simulator, the Lions have a 74 percent chance to win the both the division and the No. 1 seed. ESPN has given the team a 77.3 percent chance to do so, while DVOA has it at 76.7 percent and the Washington post is at 70 percent.

There is only one way the Lions can win the NFC North and not be the top seed for the postseason. It would require both the Lions and Vikings to lose this week, then tie in Week 18 while the Eagles win their final two games of the season.

As a refresher, the Lions can clinch both the division and the No. 1 seed with a Vikings loss to Green Bay on Sunday and a win over San Francisco on Monday. If the VIkings win, everything will come down to Week 18.

In the event that the Lions lose and the Vikings win, the Vikings would move into first place at 14-2 and the Lions into second at 13-3. However, the Lions would still clinch the division and the No. 1 seed with a win in Week 18, as they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota with two wins, and hold a better conference record than the Eagles if they finished with the same record.

The Eagles are curently 7-3 in the NFC, with the Lions at 9-1. If Detroit wins one of the next two games, both against NFC opponents, Philadelphia would have a worse conference record even if they were to tie Detroit's overall record.

If the Lions lose out, and the Vikings win out, then they would be the No. 5 seed in the postseason and would be forced to travel.

Lions clinching scenarios

NFC North/No. 1 Seed

— Lions win over 49ers + Vikings loss to Packers (Week 17)

— Lions win over Vikings

— Lions win over 49ers + Tie with Vikings

— Lions lose to 49ers + Vikings lose to Packers + Lions tie with Vikings + Eagles lose to either Cowboys or Giants

No. 2 seed

— Lions lose to 49ers + Vikings lose to Packers + Lions tie with Vikings + Eagles win out

No. 5 seed

— Lions lose to 49ers + Vikings beat or tie Packers + Lions and Vikings tie

— Lions lose to Vikings + Vikings beat or tie Packers

Here's a look at the current NFC Playoff Picture heading into Week 17.

1.) Detroit Lions (13-2) — Clinched playoff spot

2.) Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) — Clinched playoff spot

3.) Los Angeles Rams (9-6)

4.) Atlanta Falcons (8-7)

5.) Minnesota Vikings (13-2) — Clinched playoff spot

6.) Green Bay Packers (11-4) — Clinched playoff spot

7.) Washington Commanders (10-5)