Why T.J. Hockenson May Be 'Problematic' for Patriots
Mike D'Abate covers the New England Patriots for Patriots Country. He answered five questions heading into the Lions-Patriots matchup at Gillette Stadium Sunday.
1.) How would you describe the start to the Patriots' 2022 season?
Mike D'Abate: New England’s 2022 season has seen its share of ebb and flow throughout the first four games. While there were lofty expectations placed on the shoulders of Mac Jones during the offseason, the Patriots have been slow to find their offensive rhythm. Some may choose to blame the confusion surrounding their offensive coaching staff. However, there have been a number of reasons for their shaky start. New England’s offensive line has struggled to incorporate added outside zone runs, while Jones has had his difficulties due to poor protection. Still, New England has had the chance to win each game it has played. If the Patriots can simplify their offensive strategy, while strengthening their run defense, they have a chance to win a few more games than most expect.
2.) What are New England's strengths and weaknesses?
D'Abate: For all of the difficulties that the Patriots have had in the passing game, their rushing tandem of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson has been quite adept at gaining chunk yardage. While Harris remains the Pats' feature back, Stevenson has become their primary third-down option, as well as a receiving option out of the backfield.
With Jones temporarily sidelined with an ankle injury, New England’s running game will continue to set the tone for its offense.
Though running the ball may be its offensive strength, New England’s run defense has been its Achilles' heel on defense. Over the past six quarters of football, opposing running backs have had a great deal of success against the second level of the Pats' defense. Starting defensive tackle Lawrence Guy’s absence -- as the result of a shoulder injury -- has certainly not helped. New England’s linebackers have not provided the type of protection needed to effectively shut down their opponents’ running games.
3.) Does Mac Jones have the "It" factor, and how do things change if Bailey Zappe is under center Sunday?
D'Abate: When healthy, Jones does have "It" factor potential. His ability to maintain his poise, along with his drive to constantly improve, makes him the ideal steward of New England’s timing-based passing game, predicated on vertical routes and completions from quick, accurate throws.
Still, he has had his struggles thus far in 2022. Whether it be due to the change in offensive scheme, poor protection from his offensive line or questionable decision-making, Jones has some areas upon which he must improve when he returns from injury. In his place, Zappe will get the start on Sunday. Like Jones and fellow backup Brian Hoyer, Zappe is a strong logistical fit within New England’s offensive style.
The 23-year-old has a quick release, and is an accurate, short-to-intermediate passer when throwing in rhythm. Last week against the Packers, he moved well within the pocket, and demonstrated both confidence and competitiveness in pressure situations. Still, there were moments when he looked the part of a rookie who is still finding his identity as a pro quarterback.
Zappe was sacked three times, totaling 24 yards in lost yardage. In addition to his troubles with recognizing pressure, there were also moments in which he showed some difficulty in maintaining his accuracy, especially when throwing on the move. Look for him to act more as a game manager in Week 5, utilizing the running game to facilitate the offense.
4.) What are one-two key matchups to look out for?
D'Abate: While the Patriots will look to keep Detroit’s defense on its heels by exploiting the Lions' struggles in stopping the run, an individual matchup involving New England’s defensive backfield and one of the Lions' most notable offensive weapons is likely to take center stage.
Patriots safety Kyle Dugger has been bothered by a knee injury for the past three weeks, causing him to miss their Week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. During that matchup, the Pats expectedly had difficulty defending reigning All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews. He was able to exploit the mismatch in man coverage, as second-year safety Joshuah Bledsoe -- who was making his NFL debut -- attempted to keep pace. Andrews also found some success against New England’s big nickel secondary, consisting of Jabrill Peppers, Adrian Phillips and Devin McCourty. Dugger has since been improving, and is expected to play on Sunday. However, he is unlikely to be at full strength. As such, Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson may be a problematic cover without the physical presence of Dugger to contain him.
© Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK
5.) How do you see Sunday's game playing out at Foxborough between the Lions and the Patriots?
D'Abate: It’s hard to sell a matchup of two 1-3 teams as a potential sleeper among the Week 5 slate of games. However, there are a number of factors that make Sunday’s contest between the Patriots and Lions an interesting one. Each team will attempt to exploit the other’s seemingly porous run defense, while using its passing game as a complementary piece of the offense.
This game has the chance to go either way, and make no mistake, the Lions have a good chance of winning this game. Though it may sound cliché, the winning side will likely be the one who controls the clock and wins the turnover battle. Due to the Patriots' ability to grind down the clock with their running game, I give them the slightest edge.
FINAL: 24-21
