Looking at the Chargers' Playoff Chances in Year 1 Under Jim Harbaugh

The Los Angeles coach doubled down on the run game in Week 1 and it paid off. Plus, why Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll’s seats may not be so hot and more in Albert Breer’s mailbag.

Harbaugh led the Chargers to a 22–10 Week 1 win over the Raiders. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Week 2 of the NFL’s regular season is here, and we’re ready to roll, with both print and video mailbags. Let’s go …

From Charlie Sinclair (@cmsinclar): Was the league surprised by the Chargers’ physicality in Week 1? Playoff team?

Charlie, the league has access to tape on Jim Harbaugh’s teams at Stanford, San Francisco and Michigan, so if anyone within said league was surprised in any way by what the Los Angeles Chargers brought to the table in Week 1, that’s on them. Sure enough, Harbaugh’s Los Angeles outfit executed a familiar script.

In the first half, the Chargers rolled up a grand total of 26 yards on 10 carries. With Justin Herbert at quarterback, and facing a 7–6 deficit, some coaches probably would’ve pivoted there and started throwing it all over the lot. Not Harbaugh. He doubled down on the run game and a belief that eventually, they’d break through, and it happened—to the tune of (excluding kneeldowns) 152 rushing yards on 14 second-half carries.

This is, quite simply, what Harbaugh’s always built as a coach.

The fact that we’re seeing this early is a good sign for the Chargers.

Playoffs? That’ll be tough in the AFC. But I’d be surprised if they’re not at least contending to get into the tournament come early January.

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From HerbieAllDay (@HerbieAllDay): If Jesse Minter builds on his college success and has the Chargers defense rolling, could you see him getting HC looks after just one year? Or has the Staley experience put an end to the one-year wonder DC hires?

No, Herbie. Mike Vrabel was a one-year defensive coordinator. DeMeco Ryans was a DC for just two years. Mike Tomlin, going further back, was a coordinator for a single year. And the guy that Minter followed in the Baltimore-to-Michigan Harbaugh family pipeline, Mike Macdonald, got to Seattle after two years as the Ravens’ DC.

That last name is more important, to me, in all of this than Brandon Staley. If Macdonald has early success in Seattle, running a defensive scheme that’s spreading like wildfire across the NFL, and with a coordinator in Ryan Grubb, from the college game, that will really help Minter. Because these things oftentimes are that simple for teams hiring coaches: Look at someone else’s success, and try and duplicate it.

So if the Chargers keep winning, and Minter carries the wizardry he displayed at Michigan over to the NFL, and his old friend Macdonald crushes it in Seattle, he’ll get his shot.

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From erickleinphd (@DrEricKlein): How does this Haason Reddick situation end? Do you think it’s conceivable that he never plays a snap for the Jets?

Eric, this thing feels like it was very avoidable. But as it is, Reddick has lost some $5 million in fines and is forfeiting a game check of $791,667 for each week he misses going forward. Those fines can’t be forgiven. If Reddick is willing to stay this course, the next fork in the road comes the Tuesday after Week 10, Nov. 12. If the star pass rusher hasn’t reported by then, his contract would toll—meaning regardless of whether he showed up, he’d be under contract at his 2024 rate again in ’25.

If the idea for Reddick is to get to free agency at 30 years old in March, he’ll show up in time to avoid that circumstance and put enough on tape to get paid. That’s the New York Jets’ leverage point, and they’re deep enough on the defensive line to make it work in the meantime.

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From Nick Montecalvo (@Saint_Cicero): Keion White had a great opener. How does he compare to Richard Seymour and other former Patriots DL standouts?

Nick, so I think your question is fine, minus Richard Seymour’s name being in there—you could argue that he was the best player on New England’s 2003 and ’04 title teams and, yes, that’s including Tom Brady. He’s a Hall of Famer for a reason, and was an essential building block to what Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick were putting together in the early 2000s.

That said, I like White’s game a lot. He’s strong as an ox, and can be equally disruptive in the run and pass games. I don’t know if it’s an apples-to-apples comp, but with an athletic skill set to play all over the defensive line, I could see him becoming a Denico Autry-type player.

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Jones's disappointing Week 1 performance has raised questions about his role with the Giants. / John Jones-Imagn Images

From Jimmy T (@jimmy_tomredle): Hey Albert! With the way Daniel Jones has played, do you see the [Giants] benching him because of the injury clause in his contract sooner rather than later? Also are [Brian] Daboll and [Joe] Schoen really that safe or are their seats getting toasty?

So, here are the nuts and bolts of the Jones contract. He’s due to make $30.5 million in 2025, $23 million of which is guaranteed for injury, with $12 million of that $23 million vesting as fully guaranteed in March. Essentially, that means the New York Giants need Jones to be able to pass a physical in March to avoid paying him $12 million for next year, and could wind up on the hook for the full $23 million if an injury is serious enough.

That’s not in play now. If he plays poorly enough to get benched, it could get to that point, where the Giants could decide to make him the third quarterback, and deactivate him on game day. Again, we’re not there yet. But situations such as this have come up (Robert Griffin III in 2015 and Russell Wilson last year), where teams have sought to protect that injury risk.

As for Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen, I do think Giants ownership really likes those two and wants to stay the course with them. They went through three consecutive two-and-out coaches, and my feeling is the Maras and Tisches were pretty embarrassed in enduring it (they really were committed to sticking with Joe Judge for that reason into a third year until things became untenable at the end). They’ve always viewed themselves as a model of stability in a league rife with instability. They badly want to get back to actually being that.

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From Rahul Guha (@rahulguhaha): Zac Taylor is loved by the Bengals players, but isn't there more to being a good boss than just being a liked boss?

Rahul, I don’t understand the Zac Taylor backlash, honestly. The guy went through two rebuilding years, then went to a Super Bowl and a conference title game in consecutive years, then kept the Bengals in the playoff race deep into December after Joe Burrow was hurt. He’s hired really solid coaches, and kept Dan Pitcher to replace Brian Callahan last year, even when Pitcher got play-calling opportunities. That staff has, in turn, developed a lot of talent.

Now, is there fair criticism based on the chronic slow starts? One hundred percent. A team that’s had this sort of success should be better than 1–10 over Weeks 1 and 2 through Taylor’s time in Cincinnati. But, on the flip side, I think it’s fair to bank off what history shows, that these guys will bounce back. Ja’Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson will find their footing. Burrow will get comfortable. Tee Higgins will get back. So, too, will Amarius Mims. The run game should come along with Chase Brown and Zack Moss.

The Bengals will be fine, as I see it. And Taylor will show, again, why he’s the right guy.

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From alise (@ajdavis22800): What happens if the Steelers win Sunday with [Justin] Fields at the helm? Do they roll with him for the time being, or do they legitimately give Russell Wilson a shot?

Alise, it’s a good question. The good for Fields from Sunday: He carried over much of what the Pittsburgh Steelers liked about having him into Atlanta for the opener. He managed the end of the half and game deftly. He took care of the ball (he did have one fumble, but didn’t lose it). He worked the outside areas of the field, with the coaches game planning to keep the ball out of the middle, where Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III roams. He was effective in the run game and set the table for a really good defense to win the game for Pittsburgh.

It wasn’t perfect, but Fields showed the Steelers can win with him, and confirmed what a lot of folks in the building thought about the prospect of starting him—and starting him in front of an offensive line that had a ton of moving parts, and young guys playing key roles.

Fields led the Steelers to an 18–10 Week 1 victory over the Falcons. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

If that continues into Week 2 in Denver, does Pittsburgh have a conversation on this? Maybe. Or maybe it’d be easier to put Wilson out there, knowing what Fields can do, and knowing that his performance gives the coaches an escape hatch that’ll be easy to sell to the rest of the roster. So in summation, we’ll see how this week goes.

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From Depressed Bears Fan (@DepBearsFan): How much of Caleb Williams’s Week 1 struggles were rookie struggles vs. implementing a new offense with a lot of new pieces?

From what I saw, I really think part of this for Williams is learning what he can get away with and what he can’t—and adjusting to the speed of the game.

The good news, to me, is that the Chicago Bears showed they’ve got the team to support Williams, while he gains all that experience. Chicago scored on a pick-six (Tyrique Stevenson) and a blocked punt (Jonathan Owens), and those things took the pressure off the quarterback to bring the team back from a double-digit deficit and kept him from becoming target practice for a defensive opponent on the wrong end of a lopsided score.

I trust he’ll come along. Like you said, the new pieces—Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, et al.—should come together in time. Shane Waldron’s offensive system will become more ingrained. You’d also hope that Williams will get better at playing on time and throwing into the middle of the field. So I’d just be patient.