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Matt LaFleur Hasn’t Won a Super Bowl, But He’s Been a Home Run Hire
The 2024 NFL regular season is two weeks off, and you had questions. And I have the answers …
From Joe (@JoeAtWork87): What's a realistic scenario for Matt LaFleur to win Coach of the Year?
I don’t know, Joe. He certainly should have won one by now. Here are the facts …
• He won 13 games in each of his first three years, and reached two NFC title games.
• Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards under his tutelage.
• He effectively managed the acrimony between Rodgers and the front office.
• He developed Jordan Love behind Rodgers over a three-year period.
• The Green Bay Packers made the playoffs and advanced a round in Love’s first year starting.
He’s lost assistant coaches and adapted. He’s dealt with unfavorable headlines. He’s turned most of the roster over, and consistently had answers developed on his roster when older stars have gotten hurt or moved on. LaFleur hasn’t won a Super Bowl, or even been to one, but in just about every other way, he’s been a home run hire.
From The Truth (@xxAMATTxx): If C.J. Stroud continues to ascend and Caleb Williams and Jaylen Daniels have successful rookie seasons, do you think more teams opt to hire defensive head coaches to help with the development of QBs? Feel like it may help with understanding defensive concepts.
Truth, I believe deep down that the most important thing for a young quarterback to thrive is having a stable environment and good talent around him, in addition to having the talent and makeup to succeed in the NFL. Peyton Manning spent his first 10 years in the league playing for defensive coaches Jim Mora and Tony Dungy, and went to a Super Bowl with John Fox, another former defensive coach, in Denver. Tom Brady played 20 seasons for Bill Belichick. Russell Wilson won a Super Bowl with Pete Carroll. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott.
Bottom line: There are too many examples of it working without a young quarterback having an offensive-minded head coach to ignore. Can it be tough for a quarterback if his own success helps his play-caller move elsewhere, and he has to learn to work with a new coordinator every few years? Sure. But it’s also small-picture thinking to focus too much on that. While it’s fair to make that a factor in hiring, it shouldn’t be the factor.
Belichick, Mora, Dungy, Fox, Carroll, Harbaugh and McDermott built programs that gave their guys a chance. When Josh McDaniels left Belichick, he had Bill O’Brien ready. When Fox lost Mike McCoy, Adam Gase was in the pipeline. Carroll and Harbaugh successfully evolved their offenses over the years, with tactful changes when they were needed.
If you’ve got a play-caller that’s also a great head coach, such as Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan, then that’s a really nice luxury. But you’re not hiring a head coach to be a play-caller. You’re hiring a head coach to be a head coach. And if you’re not giving your quarterback that, then you’re going to have a problem.
From Jason Sanders (@HTXHoosier): Is it possible for a Cover-3 defense to be top 10 in today's NFL?
Jason, it’s a good question, because I know what you’re getting at—how Seattle’s Cover-3 defense faded in recent years. And I’d start with the reason why I think it caught on in the first place, outside of just the success Carroll’s Seahawks had. The system is constructed to be simple on players, so they can play confidently and fast, free of having too many responsibilities to carry out assignments. At its best, it fills the field with fast, big, long players that shrink the field on offenses.
With that principle in mind, what Dan Quinn does in Washington (and did in Dallas), what Robert Saleh does in New York, and what Gus Bradley does in Indy has evolved from Carroll’s schematics. What hasn’t changed, though, is acquiring fast, athletic players who can play a fast, athletic game.
And that premise exists with a couple of other schemes that have caught fire of late, too. One is the Vic Fangio system, which has players playing off when the huddle is broken, and only shows its hand when the ball is snapped. Another is the Mike Macdonald–Jesse Minter–Wink Martindale Baltimore system, which relies on simulated pressures, with players at the line at the snap, without tells on what they’re doing.
So this is how you tie it together—you’re doing simple stuff that looks complicated to the offense, while the same offense uses motion and movement and formationing to do the same thing to the defense. It’s what some coaches refer to as the “illusion of complexity.”
And, again, a lot of it is based on principles Carroll believed in, but disguised in a different way.
From Joe (@DraftonDraft): How likely are the Atlanta Falcons to add another WR or CB via trade or free agents?
Joe, could the Falcons use some more corner depth behind A.J. Terrell? Sure. Could they add a body to the Drake London-led receiver room? Yes. But I look at the names there, and there are a lot of guys who’ve played a lot of football. It’s hardly a five-alarm fire.
So, for right now, if they add a piece or two at either of those spots, it’ll be someone cut from another roster, rather than through some sort of trade. Remember, the team just invested a draft pick to acquire Matthew Judon and cash to acquire Justin Simmons to bolster a defense that was shorthanded.
I’d also leave open the possibility that things change between now and the trade deadline.
From Anil Adyanthaya (@AnilAdyanthaya): If Christian Barmore wasn’t sidelined for the indefinite future, would the Patriots have reached a deal with Matthew Judon?
No, Anil. I think that situation had run its course. The temperature on Judon’s situation actually rose after Barmore got paid—and only made him more resolved to get his $6.5 million number for 2024 boosted. The Patriots, you’ll remember, moved money in his contract from ’24 to ’23 to get him a raise last year, which shrunk Judon’s number for this year to the point where it was obvious he wasn’t playing on it in New England.
My understanding is Davon Godchaux’s push for a raise was similarly motivated. He wound up getting his. So, yeah, I’d say Barmore’s new contract had a bigger impact on the Judon situation than his health situation did.
From JT Barczak (@jtbarczak): Where does Caleb Williams rank for you vs. other QB classes and looking into the crystal ball does he reach elite status down the road?
JT, I’ll start with the first question, because that’s easy, and it’s something I did dig into over the past year—starting well before he even started his final season in college. The consensus I had was that Williams was on the sort of elite plateau as a prospect that Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck were leading up to their draft years, a tier reserved for guys such as Manning and John Elway (again, as NFL prospects, not NFL players).
And I’d say, to your second question, that Williams has a heck of a shot to get there. He’s going to a good team that doesn’t need him to be superman every week to win. I think Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron have handled his baptism into the NFL consistently, aggressively and intelligently. He’ll be throwing to DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. It’s not out of line to expect that he plays well as a rookie.
From Mr. G (@igo2alotofHSFB): How soon before we get to 18 regular-season games? Preseason sucks.
Mr. G, I think it’ll be before the inevitable 2029 opt-out from the broadcast contract. And maybe well before then—the league is going to want to go to that market with an 18-game season to sell to the networks and the streaming giants.
That said, I can’t stand this idea that the NFL is dealing with some sort of 20-game block, and, well, Hey, we’re just trying to give the fans what they want, and make a preseason game into a regular-season game. It’s incredibly disingenuous, and the owners know it. So this isn’t the league seeing a bad preseason product and snapping their fingers and making it a good regular-season product. It’s them wanting you to think they’re doing you a favor by giving you an extra week of the regular season at the cost of preseason games.
The league doesn’t have to play its fans like idiots.
From Tom Marshall (@aredzonauk): With his contract looming—is Brock Purdy in danger of trying too hard to prove his worth to the San Francisco 49ers?
Tom, no, I don’t think that’s what he’s done with some of the miscues he’s made in camp or preseason games. He’s testing himself, his limits and his teammates too. Rather than argue over that, I’ll just point you to the story we did on it a few weeks back.
From marik5591 (@marik5591): Everyone is down on the Saints but I think they're a sleeper team? Whole new offensive staff and a top 10 defense.
Marik, I think the Saints need two areas to come along to have a chance, and I do think they have a chance. One is the offensive line, which will mean getting a good level of play right away from first-round left tackle Taliese Fuaga, who played right tackle in college, and figuring out left guard (Nick Saldiveri getting healthy would help) and right tackle (Trevor Penning’s had his issues). The other is the defensive line, where they know what they’ve got in Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson, and not a lot of certainty beyond those two.
If those areas develop, I see the Saints pushing the Bucs in the NFC South. But that’s a big if.
From Badd (@notatoast1): Through the preseason, has the 2024 O-Line draft class outperformed their expectations?
Badd, love the question. Good shot to do a quick rundown. Based on what I’ve heard, the two most impressive guys, I think, of the first-rounders thus far have been Chargers rookie Joe Alt and Bengals rookie Amarius Mims (who’s now hurt). JC Latham and Fuaga will be fascinating as they make the switch that Jedrick Wills did in Cleveland in 2022, going from college right tackle to NFL left tackle. Olu Fashanu’s been fantastic for the Jets, working on both sides (and on the right for the first time). And Buccaneers C Graham Barton is ready to roll.
So that would be my quick synopsis. I also could add Chiefs LT Kingsley Suamataia, a second-rounder, with the group—he has a chance to be really good. As does this class of offensive linemen as a whole.
From Zach Stratton (@Zach_Stratton29): What are your realistic expectations for the Packers this year?
Zach, playoffs and staying in the NFC North race with the Detroit Lions into the holidays.
The offense, on paper, should take another step. I also think new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will show himself to be a difference-maker for Green Bay (big years coming for Rashan Gary and Devonte Wyatt.
From Nick Merriam (@nickwithsports): Should Commanders fans be concerned about Kliff Kingsbury’s ability to scheme a dynamic offense?
Nick, I don’t think so. One thing I was told pretty consistently by coaches over a two- or three-year period was that Kingsbury’s offense was tough to prepare for because it was so different than what most NFL teams do. It’s also a really good fit for what Daniels brings to the table—and I’d expect Daniels to be in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
From thomas barz (@barzskins): When is a realistic date for Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk to sign their new contracts?
Thomas, I’d say Labor Day weekend is a fair target. I do think both of them get taken care of.
From Dan Borrello (@danborrello): When we were kids, there were solid backup QBs. Now, if your starter gets hurt, you’re in dire straits. Why aren’t backup QBs as good as they were in the 90s? Is it the lack of practices with the CBA, or are the college systems too simple? Or, something else? Thanks!
Dan, this is a complex question. But I think one factor is it’s more rare to have a guy be a backup in one place over a longer period of time—such as Frank Reich was in Buffalo, Steve Young was in San Francisco, Jeff Hostetler was in New York, or Gary Kubiak was in Denver. Staying put, before true free agency got going in 1993, meant knowing an offense back-and-forth, so you’d naturally look better when you got in the game.
Then, there’s the reduction in practice time, offseason quarterback schools, preseasons games, and outside opportunities (like NFL Europe) for guys who aren’t playing to keep developing their skills with their coaches and/or under game-like conditions.
Mostly, there’s no replacing time on task lost. But, to be honest, I generally don’t think quarterback depth in the NFL is the problem you might. You aren’t going to have 50 or 60 Joe Burrows or Patrick Mahomeses walking the earth. So of course there’s going to be a drop-off when one of those guys winds up getting hurt.
From Derek Nelson (@_derekn): Earlier in the preseason you had mentioned the New York Giants as a team that could surprise. Do you still believe this to be the case? IMO, a 2–0 start is a requirement if this season is going to amount to anything.
Derek, my whole basis for that was the expected improvement up front.
I think it’ll all ride on that. So hope for Kayvon Thibodeaux to break through as Brian Burns delivers on the investment the Giants made, and for Greg Van Roten, Jermaine Eluemunor and Jon Runyan to jell quickly with Andrew Thomas, John Michael Schmitz and, at some point maybe, Evan Neal. If those things happen, I think New York can make the playoffs. If it doesn’t, you might get a redux of the 2023 season.
From ATL Falcons UK (@ATLFalconsUK): Expectations of the Atlanta Falcons after some huge acquisitions during the offseason?
I expect they’ll contend for the NFC South title that the Bucs won the past three years.
From D. Orlando Ledbetter (@DOrlandoAJC): Why do they charge full price for this exhibition games. It’s a rip-off. Ralph Nader would be ticked!
D-Led! You know the answer as well as I do—because they can. For what it’s worth, my friends who have season tickets view the preseason tickets as a tax on their regular-season packages. And shrug and pay for it.
