SI:AM | NFC West Race Is the NFL’s Most Chaotic

It’s the only division in the league where every team is .500 or better.

Who will come out on top in the NFC West? / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

In today’s SI:AM: 

🏈 NFL playoff picture
🧑‍🎓 College playoff picture
👋 Daniel Jones benched

Who’s going to come out on top?

With 11 weeks gone in the NFL season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape. Some divisions have a clear favorite, like the 9–2 Buffalo Bills or the 9–1 Kansas City Chiefs. Others—like the NFC East and AFC North—have a pair of teams that have emerged as co-favorites. And then there’s the NFC West, where it’s anyone’s guess who will come out on top.

A little more than halfway through the season, the division race is a dead heat. The Arizona Cardinals lead the way at 6–4, and the other three teams—the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks—are 5–5.

The Niners were supposed to be heavy favorites to win the division for a third straight year but have already lost as many games as they did during last year’s 12–5 campaign. Sunday’s late loss to the Seahawks at home was another missed opportunity for the Niners to get their season back on track.

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Seattle has a thoroughly mediocre defense, ranking 21st in points allowed per game and 22nd in yards allowed per game, but held San Francisco to its worst offensive performance of the season in a 20–17 victory. That tied a season low in points for the Niners’ offense, and their 277 yards of total offense were their fewest in a game since Week 6 of last season. Quarterback Brock Purdy had 159 passing yards, the second fewest yards he’s put up in any of his 31 career starts.

Purdy did lead a 14-play, 70-yard drive that took almost nine minutes to take the lead in the fourth quarter. He completed six of his seven pass attempts on the series, including a three-yard touchdown pass to Jauan Jennings. But the offense stalled out on its next drive when the Niners had an opportunity to ice the game after stuffing the Seahawks on a fourth-down attempt. That put the ball back in the hands of Geno Smith, who engineered a flawless game-winning drive, culminating in a 13-yard touchdown scramble with 12 seconds left.

With 12 seconds left, @GenoSmith3 does it himself. 👏 pic.twitter.com/QXR3jEodxh

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 18, 2024

“It’s infuriating, honestly,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “It’s not like us. But that’s just what we’ve shown this year. So I guess until we stop doing that, that’s who we are.”

The Niners’ struggles have opened the door for the other three teams in the division. The Cardinals were off this week but have flexed their muscles in impressive wins over the Chicago Bears (29–9) and New York Jets (31–6) in their last two games. The Rams have won four of their last five after beating the New England Patriots on Sunday. And the Seahawks’ win snapped a two-game skid to get them back in the mix.

The NFC West race is particularly compelling because it’s likely the division winner will be the only one of those four teams to make the playoffs, given that the three teams currently in wild-card position in the NFC all have at least seven wins. It’s possible that if multiple NFC West teams get hot down the stretch while teams like the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders falter that multiple NFC West teams could go to the postseason, but they shouldn’t be counting on it.

It’s anyone’s guess who will end up winning the division, but each team’s remaining schedule might help give us some sort of idea. The Niners, by virtue of having had a great season last year, have a really tough schedule the rest of the way. Their next two games are on the road against the Packers and Bills, and they also have to face the NFC-leading Detroit Lions in Week 17. The Cardinals have an interesting remaining schedule that includes two games in the next three weeks against the Seahawks and divisional clashes with the Rams and Niners in the final two weeks of the season. In between, Arizona has a tough one on the road against the Vikings but will also face two of the worst teams in the league, the Patriots and Carolina Panthers. The Seahawks’ most difficult games are against the Vikings and Packers, but both are at home. Similarly, the Rams have to play the Eagles and Bills, but both games are in Los Angeles.

All four teams have at least two games left against division opponents, and the final week of the regular season will feature two games pitting NFC West foes against one another. Considering that no team has been able to rise above the pack, the division race appears destined to go down to the wire.

Buffalo made a big statement in beating Kansas City on Sunday. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Matt Verderame has a wider view of the NFL playoff picture after Week 11.

• Verderame also weighed in briefly on the significance of each of Sunday’s games.

• Conor Orr broke down the play the Bills used to beat the Chiefs in a clash of AFC contenders.

• Gilberto Manzano argues that the Broncos’ win over the Falcons should put Bo Nix in Offensive Rookie of the Year discussions.

• The College Football Playoff is also beginning to take shape. Pat Forde looks at the most notable results from Saturday and where things stand with the CFP now.

• The Daniel Jones era is over in New York. The Giants will start Tommy DeVito this week.

• The Wings won the WNBA draft lottery and will presumably be in line to select UConn’s Paige Bueckers.

• Beyoncé will perform at halftime of the Texans–Ravens game on Christmas Day.

The top five…

… things I saw yesterday:

5. Alex Ovechkin’s 31st career hat trick.
4. The Packers’ field goal block to beat the Bears.
3. Julius Randle’s step-back game-winner for the Timberwolves.
2. J.K. Dobbins’s game-winning 29-yard touchdown run for the Chargers.
1. Josh Allen’s powerful touchdown run to seal the Bills’ win over the Chiefs.