Dak Prescott’s Contract Gives Him Rare Leverage Over the Cowboys

The QB is likely free of the franchise tag. Plus, answering your questions on Trevor Lawrence, expectations for the Bears, teams in need of wide receivers and more.

Prescott takes the field for the Cowboys’ wild-card game against the Packers. / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

It’s schedule release day! We’ll cover everything else here …

From Steve Bussberg (@SBussberg): What is the latest on Dak’s contract situation? Is the thinking he plays the year without a new deal? And is it the Cowboys shying away from a new deal? Or Dak wants out?

Steve, I think we’re at the posturing stage of the negotiation.

That doesn’t mean they won’t get something done. Huffing and puffing about your intentions, and how resolved you are to your position, is easy in March and April and May. As we get closer to summer, things will start to shift, as the Dallas Cowboys come closer to the reality of putting Prescott out there in a contract year, and Prescott confronts the injury risk that accompanies that, and the uncertainty of what might lie ahead in 2025.

That said, I think there are a couple of things to remember here. First, Prescott’s tag number in 2025 would come at 144% of his ’24 cap number. The latter tops $55 million, which sets the former at $79.39 million. And that essentially means Dallas really can’t tag Prescott in March, so he’s got the rare leverage of knowing he’ll be a free agent. Meanwhile, Jared Goff just got a deal with a new-money average of $53 million, months after Kirk Cousins got $45 million, so waiting on this has given negotiations new framing.

I can’t imagine, based on all this, that Prescott would take anything without an average well into the 50s. Do the Cowboys have the appetite for that? To this point, they haven’t. We’ll see whether that changes as we get closer to the season.

From Bernie Bahrmasel (@BernieBahrmasel): Thoughts on the CeeDee Lamb contract status as it relates to what the Eagles gave A.J. Brown? Does it get done before training camp opens in July? Thanks as always.

Bernie, again, this is an example of waiting hurting the Cowboys. They’ve had a habit of doing this. It cost them with Zack Martin and DeMarcus Lawrence, and before that Dez Bryant, and Prescott the last time around. The one time they did go in early, on future Hall of Fame left tackle Tyron Smith, they wound up having him at a reasonable rate for the rest of his time in Dallas—and he stayed there for 13 years.

So yes, yes, yes, that Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown just signed deals at $28 million and $32 million APY, respectively, will make Lamb pricier. But it didn’t have to be this way.

From DefendTheDen (@Vretz2121): With the Rams reportedly showing interest in Mike Evans, Rome Odunze and Courtland Sutton, do you anticipate them trying to add an impact WR before the season starts? Seems they are looking for another playmaker.

Defend, I’d say, yes, they’re open for business if the right opportunity arises. I hadn’t heard as much on those guys, but I would say that the Los Angeles Rams had Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and Texas 3-tech Byron Murphy right there with Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse as considerations in the teens, which means adding a weapon with high-end capital was on the table in late April, so it’d still be on the table now.

The caveat I’d give you there is I do think it’d take someone unique becoming available for the Rams to make a move. If you look at their big-box trades that cost the team six first-round picks and then some, they were made for quarterbacks (Goff, Matthew Stafford) and a true take-half-the-field corner (Jalen Ramsey).

That should color any thought of the Rams taking another Rams-ish big swing—it’d have to be for a true blue-chipper. Who could that be? Maybe they’d see Brandon Aiyuk that way, but there’s no way the 49ers would trade him within the division, and at this point, I think San Francisco is more likely to extend him than deal him away. I’m not sure Tee Higgins would be in that category.

So if you’re asking me whether the Rams would be open to adding a receiver, I’d say, yes. It’s just that at this point, I don’t know who’d be worth such a move. Of course, stuff happens. We’ll see.

Lawrence is looking to bounce back in his fourth season. / Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

From GWood (@Grant___Wood): Is Trevor Lawrence approaching Derek Carr territory? Similar starts to career, now they get the coach, the receivers, the back and still not progressing …

G Wood, no, I don’t think so. Trevor Lawrence is enormously talented. But one thing I’d heard pretty consistently, and over and over again through his rookie year, is how it was undersold just how raw he was coming out of Clemson. (And I’m guilty there, too.)

While he did play a lot of football over three years as a collegian, he ran an offense under Dabo Swinney and Tony Elliott that was relatively simple, and predicated on executing and playing fast. Coming out of college, that left a learning curve for Lawrence to scale, the same way Deshaun Watson had a ways to go coming out of Swinney’s program, with Bill O’Brien and the Houston Texans actually going and learning the Clemson offense to shorten that learning curve.

So that’s the baseline for Lawrence. Then, he went through the messy Urban Meyer rookie year, broke through in Year 2 and took a bit of a step back in Year 3.

Add it up, and I think you can see why his development has stagnated a bit. I’m still a big believer that he’s going to make it, for two reasons. First, he won and won and won, and played great on big stages, in college. That counts for something. Second, he endured the football adversity of 2021, and came out the other side better for it, which shows real resilience. That’s why, if you ask me, he still has a real chance to be in the same category that Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are in.

Be patient. He’s still just 24 years old.

From House7144 (@house7144): Bears record this coming season?

House, I’d look at the back end of their schedule from 2023. This was a 5–3 football team from Veteran’s Day Weekend on. They beat good Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings teams over that stretch, and knocked the Atlanta Falcons from the playoff picture in Week 17, then went toe-to-toe with the Green Bay Packers in Week 18, with Green Bay needing a win to get in (Chicago lost 17–9).

Bottom line, this was a pretty good team over the last two months of the season, with a fast-improving defense in the middle of the whole thing.

And now, you’re giving the offense Caleb Williams at quarterback, and Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze at receiver, in addition to what was already there, and it’s hard not to look at this and say the Bears should be over .500 and in the playoff hunt on New Year’s Day. With all that in mind, and a really good division to contend with, give me a two-game uptick for Matt Eberflus’s crew, with the 9–8 Bears sneaking into the postseason, for now.

From MattyHy (@mattyhy13): Do you think Calvin Anderson has a chance to be in the LT mix for the Patriots?

Matty, he’s a great story, it turns out—Chris Price of The Boston Globe did a good job chronicling that. But is Anderson an actual viable option to be the team’s left tackle? If so, based on what? He has 14 career starts over five seasons, 11 of them as a fill-in for Denver left tackle Garett Bolles, three of them at right tackle. Two of those three starts at right tackle were in Weeks 1 and 2 last year for the New England Patriots.

We should start by saying, based on all he’s been through, he deserves a mulligan for everything last year and a fresh start this year. That said, hoping a guy will become a starting-level left tackle in his sixth year without having gotten there yet isn’t exactly a plan. And based on what I know, it isn’t the Patriots’ plan.

My expectation would be Pittsburgh Steelers import Chukwuma Okorafor will be the starting left tackle to begin training camp, with rookie Caedan Wallace competing for the job, as he transitions from playing on the right side at Penn State, and Anderson somewhere in that mix.

From Joe Dorklas (@SteveSpaccareli): Free agent safety market post Antoine Winfield Jr. extension?

Joe, I think what you’re seeing more and more now is NFL teams leaning into overinvesting at premium positions. In other words, spend money and draft capital on quarterbacks, guys who hit them (edge rushers), guys who protect them (tackles), their targets (receivers) and the guys who cover those targets (corners), then figure that you can find a way to make it work everywhere else.

So off-ball linebackers, safeties, defensive tackles that can’t play all three downs, guards, centers and running backs become the victims of this, with at least some teams feeling like you can churn those spots with affordable veterans and guys on rookie contracts.

Of course, exceptions can be made for truly special guys, like Baltimore Ravens middle linebacker Roquan Smith, Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James Jr., New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, Colts guard Quenton Nelson or 49ers tailback Christian McCaffrey. But to get there at one of those positions now, you have to be pretty special. And that’s how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers see Winfield.

From Cbsports (@Cbsports87): Will the Steelers make a move for a big-time wideout between now and end of camp?

CB, I’d say no.

Some facts for you …

• The Pittsburgh Steelers have taken 19 receivers over the past 18 drafts. The highest pick spent was No. 49. They still wound up with Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, George Pickens, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool with those picks.

• The last time the Steelers’ leading receiver wasn’t homegrown was in 1941. That was Don Looney, who came over from the Philadelphia Eagles with the teams moving players back and forth in the midst of World War II.

• The team took Michigan’s Roman Wilson with the 84th pick. Wilson was a four-year player with the Wolverines and is coming from a pro-style offense, which should ease the transition. I’ve heard him compared to the Seattle Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett.

Based on all that, I’d say the Steelers could augment at the position, but I’d be pretty surprised if they do anything earth-shattering. It’s just not how they’ve operated at that particular position. And I’ll give you the caveat that Omar Khan, still relatively new at GM, could throw a curveball here. I just wouldn’t expect it.

From Billy Salt (@billysalt): Any postmortem inside perspective on main contributors to the Eagles’ collapse

Billy, I’d say the Eagles told us they felt the coaching was at least a part of the problem, in offloading Brian Johnson, Sean Desai and Matt Patricia, and bringing in experienced coordinators Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. The other factor that shouldn’t be ignored is how the defense seemed to get old all at once.

So if you’re looking for an elixir, to me, it’s hitting on Moore and Fangio as hires, and then having guys such as Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, Nolan Smith and Nakobe Dean step up in a big way in Fangio’s scheme.

From JDins5 (@JDins_5): The Ridley project in Jacksonville was up and down all year. Brian Thomas Jr. seems he could fit the WR1 gap better than Ridley did. Should we have equal/higher expectations than we did this time last year for the Jags? (AFC S Champs)

JDins, I’m still big on Lawrence, and I love Doug Pederson as a head coach.

So I do think the potential is there to run with the fast-rising Houston Texans in the AFC South. That said, I’d probably have more questions on defense than offense right now. And if you’re keeping that in mind, sure, Thomas, if he can keep his shoulder healthy, has the traits to be a No. 1 in the NFL, and getting those sorts of flashes from him would make Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk and, ultimately, Lawrence himself all the more dangerous.

It's Year 3 for Pederson, and Year 4 for GM Trent Baalke. They should have a good team.